Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0864.1 |
Nonuniform Contribution of Internal Variability to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss | |
England, Mark1; Jahn, Alexandra2,3; Polvani, Lorenzo4,5 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
![]() |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:13页码:4039-4053 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Over the last half century, the Arctic sea ice cover has declined dramatically. Current estimates suggest that, for the Arctic as a whole, nearly one-half of the observed loss of summer sea ice cover is not due to anthropogenic forcing but rather is due to internal variability. Using the 40 members of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), our analysis provides the first regional assessment of the role of internal variability on the observed sea ice loss. The CESM-LE is one of the best available models for such an analysis, because it performs better than other CMIP5 models for many metrics of importance. Our study reveals that the local contribution of internal variability has a large range and strongly depends on the month and region in question. We find that the pattern of internal variability is highly nonuniform over the Arctic, with internal variability accounting for less than 10% of late summer (August-September) East Siberian Sea sea ice loss but more than 60% of the Kara Sea sea ice loss. In contrast, spring (April-May) sea ice loss, notably in the Barents Sea, has so far been dominated by internal variability. |
英文关键词 | Arctic Sea ice Ensembles Interannual variability Multidecadal variability Trends |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000471781000001 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; TRENDS ; AIRCRAFT ; ENSEMBLE ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184702 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Appl Phys & Appl Math Dept, New York, NY 10027 USA; 2.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 3.Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 4.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Appl Phys & Appl Math Dept, New York, NY USA; 5.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, New York, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | England, Mark,Jahn, Alexandra,Polvani, Lorenzo. Nonuniform Contribution of Internal Variability to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(13):4039-4053. |
APA | England, Mark,Jahn, Alexandra,&Polvani, Lorenzo.(2019).Nonuniform Contribution of Internal Variability to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(13),4039-4053. |
MLA | England, Mark,et al."Nonuniform Contribution of Internal Variability to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.13(2019):4039-4053. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论