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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0524.1 |
Calibration Uncertainties of Tropical Pacific Climate Reconstructions over the Last Millennium | |
Yun, Kyung-Sook; Timmermann, Axel1 | |
2019-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:14页码:4547-4566 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea |
英文摘要 | Several climate field reconstruction methods assume stationarity between the leading patterns of variability identified during the instrumental calibration period and the reconstruction period. We examine how and to what extent this restrictive assumption may generate uncertainties in reconstructing past tropical Pacific climate variability. Based on the Last Millennium (850-2005 CE) ensemble simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model and by developing a series of pseudoproxy reconstructions for different calibration periods, we find that the overall reconstruction skill for global and more regional-scale climate indices depends significantly on the magnitude of externally forced global mean temperature variability during the chosen calibration period. This effect strongly reduces the fidelity of reconstructions of decadal to centennial-scale tropical climate variability, associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and centennial-scale temperature shifts between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). In contrast, our pseudoproxy-based analysis demonstrates that reconstructions of interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability are more robust and less affected by changes in calibration period. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000472925900002 |
WOS关键词 | PROXY-BASED RECONSTRUCTIONS ; EL-NINO-LIKE ; FIELD RECONSTRUCTION ; TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS ; METHODS STOCHASTICITY ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; SURROGATE ENSEMBLE ; PAST CLIMATE ; ICE-AGE ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/184729 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Inst Basic Sci, Ctr Climate Phys, Busan, South Korea; 2.Pusan Natl Univ, Busan, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yun, Kyung-Sook,Timmermann, Axel. Calibration Uncertainties of Tropical Pacific Climate Reconstructions over the Last Millennium[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(14):4547-4566. |
APA | Yun, Kyung-Sook,&Timmermann, Axel.(2019).Calibration Uncertainties of Tropical Pacific Climate Reconstructions over the Last Millennium.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(14),4547-4566. |
MLA | Yun, Kyung-Sook,et al."Calibration Uncertainties of Tropical Pacific Climate Reconstructions over the Last Millennium".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.14(2019):4547-4566. |
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