Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.05.053 |
Limits to growth redux: A system dynamics model for assessing energy and climate change constraints to global growth | |
Ansell, Thomas; Cayzer, Steve | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 120页码:514-525 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | This study investigates the notion of limits to socioeconomic growth with a specific focus on the role of climate change and the declining quality of fossil fuel reserves. A new system dynamics model has been created. The World Energy Model (WEM) is based on the World3 model (The Limits to Growth, Meadows et al., 2004) with climate change and energy production replacing generic pollution and resources factors. WEM also tracks global population, food production and industrial output out to the year 2100. This paper presents a series of WEM's projections; each of which represent broad sweeps of what the future may bring. All scenarios project that global industrial output will continue growing until 2100. Scenarios based on current energy trends lead to a 50% increase in the average cost of energy production and 2.4-2.7 degrees C of global warming by 2100. WEM projects that limiting global warming to 2 degrees C will reduce the industrial output growth rate by 0.1-0.2%. However, WEM also plots industrial decline by 2150 for cases of uncontrolled climate change or increased population growth. The general behaviour of WEM is far more stable than World3 but its results still support the call for a managed decline in society's ecological footprint. |
英文关键词 | Limits Growth Climate change Energy Population System dynamics |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000440123300048 |
WOS关键词 | TRENDS ; FUTURE ; PERSPECTIVE ; IMPACTS ; CAPTURE ; STORAGE ; CROPS ; EROI |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/18488 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, Avon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ansell, Thomas,Cayzer, Steve. Limits to growth redux: A system dynamics model for assessing energy and climate change constraints to global growth[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,120:514-525. |
APA | Ansell, Thomas,&Cayzer, Steve.(2018).Limits to growth redux: A system dynamics model for assessing energy and climate change constraints to global growth.ENERGY POLICY,120,514-525. |
MLA | Ansell, Thomas,et al."Limits to growth redux: A system dynamics model for assessing energy and climate change constraints to global growth".ENERGY POLICY 120(2018):514-525. |
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