Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.6185 |
Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices | |
Blanco-Ward, Daniel1; Monteiro, Alexandra1; Lopes, Myriam1; Borrego, Carlos1; Silveira, Carlos1; Viceto, Carolina2,3,4; Rocha, Alfredo2,3,4; Ribeiro, Antonio5; Andrade, Joao5; Feliciano, Manuel5; Castro, Joao5; Barreales, David5; Neto, Jorge6; Carlos, Cristina7; Peixoto, Carlos; Miranda, Ana1 | |
2019-07-15 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Portugal |
英文摘要 | Climate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the wine-growing regions of the world are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing-season temperatures (GSTs) limited to 13-21 degrees C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for climate change assessment and for grape production, with emphasis on grapevine bioclimatic indices and extreme events (e.g., cold waves, storms, heatwaves). Dynamical downscaling of European Reanalysis-Interim and Max Planck Institute Earth System low-resolution global simulations forced with a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario was performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including the Douro Valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986-2005) and future periods (2046-2065, 2081-2100). The number, duration and intensity of events were superimposed over critical phenological phases estimated by using a specific local grapevine varietal phenological model in order to assess their positive or negative implications for wine production in the region. An assessment of the relevance of climate parameters and indices and their progression in recent-past and future climate scenarios with regard to the potential impact on wine production was performed. Results indicate a positive relation between higher growing-season heat accumulations and greater vintage yields. A moderate incidence of very hot days (daily maximum temperature above 35 degrees C) and drought from pre-veraison phenological conditions have a positive association with vintage ratings. However, the mid- and long-term WRF-MPI RCP8.5 future climate scenarios reveal shifts to warmer and drier conditions, with the mean GST not remaining within range for quality wine production in the long-term future climate scenario. These results indicate potential impacts that suggest a range of strategies to maintain wine production and quality in the region. |
英文关键词 | agrometeorology bioclimatic indices climate change modelling extreme climate indices grapevine phenology regional and mesoscale modelling wine production |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000476235000001 |
WOS关键词 | GROWING REGIONS ; DOURO VALLEY ; VITICULTURE ; PROJECTIONS ; GRAPEVINE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185016 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Aveiro Univ, Dept Environm & Planning DAO, Campus Univ Santiago, P-3810193 Aveiro, Portugal; 2.Aveiro Univ, Ctr Environm & Marine Studies CESAM, Aveiro, Portugal; 3.Aveiro Univ, Phys Dept, Aveiro, Portugal; 4.Aveiro Univ, CESAM, Aveiro, Portugal; 5.Inst Politecn Braganca, Mt Res Ctr CIMO, Campus Santa Apolonia, Braganca, Portugal; 6.Portuguese Inst Sea & Atmosphere IPMA, Climate & Climate Change Div, Rua C Ao Aeroporto, Lisbon, Portugal; 7.Assoc Dev Viticulture Douro Reg ADVID, Edificio Ctr Excelencia Vinha & Vinho Regia Douro, Vila Real, Portugal |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Blanco-Ward, Daniel,Monteiro, Alexandra,Lopes, Myriam,et al. Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Blanco-Ward, Daniel.,Monteiro, Alexandra.,Lopes, Myriam.,Borrego, Carlos.,Silveira, Carlos.,...&Miranda, Ana.(2019).Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Blanco-Ward, Daniel,et al."Climate change impact on a wine-producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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