Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018JD029516 |
Large Impacts, Past and Future, of Ozone-Depleting Substances on Brewer-Dobson Circulation Trends: A Multimodel Assessment | |
Polvani, L. M.1,2,3; Wang, L.2,4,5; Abalos, M.6; Butchart, N.7; Chipperfield, M. P.8; Dameris, M.9; Deushi, M.10; Dhomse, S. S.8; Joeckel, P.9; Kinnison, D.3; Michou, M.11; Morgenstern, O.12; Oman, L. D.13; Plummer, D. A.14; Stone, K. A.15,16,17 | |
2019-07-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 124期号:13页码:6669-6680 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Peoples R China; Spain; England; Germany; Japan; France; New Zealand; Canada; Australia |
英文摘要 | Substantial increases in the atmospheric concentration of well-mixed greenhouse gases (notably CO2), such as those projected to occur by the end of the 21st century under large radiative forcing scenarios, have long been known to cause an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in climate models. More recently, however, several single-model studies have proposed that ozone-depleting substances might also be important drivers of BDC trends. As these studies were conducted with different forcings over different periods, it is difficult to combine them to obtain a robust quantitative picture of the relative importance of ozone-depleting substances as drivers of BDC trends. To this end, we here analyze-over identical past and future periods-the output from 20 similarly forced models, gathered from two recent chemistry-climate modeling intercomparison projects. Our multimodel analysis reveals that ozone-depleting substances are responsible for more than half of the modeled BDC trends in the two decades 1980-2000. We also find that, as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, decreasing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances in coming decades will strongly decelerate the BDC until the year 2080, reducing the age-of-air trends by more than half, and will thus substantially mitigate the impact of increasing CO2. As ozone-depleting substances impact BDC trends, primarily, via the depletion/recovery of stratospheric ozone over the South Pole, they impart seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries to the trends which may offer opportunities for detection in coming decades. |
英文关键词 | Brewer-Dobson circulation ozone-depleting substances age of air stratospheric circulation chemistry-climate models |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477580200002 |
WOS关键词 | CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE MODEL ; STRATOSPHERE ; ATMOSPHERE ; CMIP5 ; AGCM |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185112 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY 10027 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA; 3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 4.Fudan Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China; 5.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China; 6.Univ Complutense Madrid, Earth Phys & Astrophys Dept, Madrid, Spain; 7.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 8.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England; 9.Deutsch Zentrum Luft & Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; 10.Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 11.Meteo France CNRS, Toulouse, France; 12.Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Wellington, New Zealand; 13.NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD USA; 14.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Climate Res Branch, Montreal, PQ, Canada; 15.Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 16.Univ New South Wales, Arc Ctr Excellence Climate Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 17.MIT, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Polvani, L. M.,Wang, L.,Abalos, M.,et al. Large Impacts, Past and Future, of Ozone-Depleting Substances on Brewer-Dobson Circulation Trends: A Multimodel Assessment[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(13):6669-6680. |
APA | Polvani, L. M..,Wang, L..,Abalos, M..,Butchart, N..,Chipperfield, M. P..,...&Stone, K. A..(2019).Large Impacts, Past and Future, of Ozone-Depleting Substances on Brewer-Dobson Circulation Trends: A Multimodel Assessment.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(13),6669-6680. |
MLA | Polvani, L. M.,et al."Large Impacts, Past and Future, of Ozone-Depleting Substances on Brewer-Dobson Circulation Trends: A Multimodel Assessment".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.13(2019):6669-6680. |
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