Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.6219 |
The Central Chile Mega Drought (2010-2018): A climate dynamics perspective | |
Garreaud, Rene D.1,2; Boisier, Juan P.2; Rondanelli, Roberto1,2; Montecinos, Aldo3,4; Sepulveda, Hector H.3; Veloso-Aguila, Daniel3 | |
2019-07-21 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Chile |
英文摘要 | Central Chile, home to more than 10 million inhabitants, has experienced an uninterrupted sequence of dry years since 2010 with mean rainfall deficits of 20-40%. The so-called Mega Drought (MD) is the longest event on record and with few analogues in the last millennia. It encompasses a broad area, with detrimental effects on water availability, vegetation and forest fires that have scaled into social and economical impacts. Observations and reanalysis data reveal that the exceptional length of the MD results from the prevalence of a circulation dipole-hindering the passage of extratropical storms over central Chile-characterized by deep tropospheric anticyclonic anomalies over the subtropical Pacific and cyclonic anomalies over the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major modulator of such dipole, but the MD has occurred mostly under ENSO-neutral conditions, except for the winters of 2010 (La Nina) and 2015 (strong El Nino). Climate model simulations driven both with historical forcing (natural and anthropogenic) and observed global SST replicate the south Pacific dipole and capture part of the rainfall anomalies. Idealized numerical experiments suggest that most of the atmospheric anomalies emanate from the subtropical southwest Pacific, a region that has experienced a marked surface warming over the last decade. Such warming may excite atmospheric Rossby waves whose propagation intensifies the circulation pattern leading to dry conditions in central Chile. On the other hand, anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases concentration increase and stratospheric ozone depletion) and the associated positive trend of the Southern Annular Mode also contribute to the strength of the south Pacific dipole and hence to the intensity and longevity of the MD. Given the concomitance of the seemingly natural (ocean sourced) and anthropogenic forcing, we anticipate only a partial recovery of central Chile precipitation in the decades to come. |
英文关键词 | Chile climate change drought ENSO PDO SAM South America |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000477471900001 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE ; RAINFALL VARIABILITY ; CALIFORNIA DROUGHT ; FERTILE CRESCENT ; GREENHOUSE-GAS ; CENTRAL ANDES ; PACIFIC ; PRECIPITATION ; CIRCULATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185183 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Chile, Geophys Dept, Santiago, Chile; 2.Univ Chile, Ctr Climate & Resilience Res, Santiago, Chile; 3.Univ Concepcion, Dept Geophys, Concepcion, Chile; 4.Univ Concepcion, Ctr Recursos Hidr Agr & Mineria, Concepcion, Chile |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Garreaud, Rene D.,Boisier, Juan P.,Rondanelli, Roberto,et al. The Central Chile Mega Drought (2010-2018): A climate dynamics perspective[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Garreaud, Rene D.,Boisier, Juan P.,Rondanelli, Roberto,Montecinos, Aldo,Sepulveda, Hector H.,&Veloso-Aguila, Daniel.(2019).The Central Chile Mega Drought (2010-2018): A climate dynamics perspective.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Garreaud, Rene D.,et al."The Central Chile Mega Drought (2010-2018): A climate dynamics perspective".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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