Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04647-x |
Near-future tropical cyclone predictions in the western North Pacific: fewer tropical storms but more typhoons | |
Choi, Woosuk1; Ho, Chang-Hoi1; Kim, Jinwon2; Chan, Johnny C. L.3 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:1341-1356 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | This study presents forecasts of near-future tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific (WNP) using a TC track-pattern-based prediction model in conjunction with long-term free-run simulations from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System. The prediction shows that the East Asian coastal area will be affected by fewer TC landfalls. However, the number of stronger TC landfalls may increase in the near future (2016-2030) compared to the present-day period (2002-2015). The potential candidates for modulating the near-future TC activity are three large-scale climate variability: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Pacific sea surface temperature (NPSST) variation, and basin-wide warming of the Pacific. More frequent El Nino episodes in the near future may contribute to the activation of TC formations in the far-eastern tropical ocean, which generates a favorable influence on TC intensification due to longer distances and development periods over the ocean. NPSST variations have contrasting effects, i.e., they have unfavorable effects on TC genesis due to weak vorticity, while creating favorable conditions for TC intensification by providing more humid environments in the subtropics. The impact of overall Pacific warming on the changes in TC activities is low compared to that of the other two factors. Our results physically demonstrate the contributions of three WNP sea surface temperature variability on near-future TC activity, emphasizing the critical roles of ENSO and NPSST rather than the near-term warming effect. |
英文关键词 | Tropical cyclone Western North Pacific Near-future prediction El Nino-Southern Oscillation North Pacific Sea surface temperature Pacific warming |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000475558800007 |
WOS关键词 | SEASONAL PREDICTION ; DECADAL PREDICTION ; POTENTIAL INDEX ; SOUTH CHINA ; GENESIS ; MODULATION ; FREQUENCY ; FORECAST ; TRACKS ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185401 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Seoul Natl Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, 1 Gwanak Ro, Seoul 08826, South Korea; 2.Korea Meteorol Adm, Natl Inst Meteorol Sci, Seogwipo Si, Jeju Do, South Korea; 3.City Univ Hong Kong, Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Climate Impact Ctr, Sch Energy & Environm, Kowloon Tong,Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Choi, Woosuk,Ho, Chang-Hoi,Kim, Jinwon,et al. Near-future tropical cyclone predictions in the western North Pacific: fewer tropical storms but more typhoons[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:1341-1356. |
APA | Choi, Woosuk,Ho, Chang-Hoi,Kim, Jinwon,&Chan, Johnny C. L..(2019).Near-future tropical cyclone predictions in the western North Pacific: fewer tropical storms but more typhoons.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,1341-1356. |
MLA | Choi, Woosuk,et al."Near-future tropical cyclone predictions in the western North Pacific: fewer tropical storms but more typhoons".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):1341-1356. |
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