Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04696-2 |
A Euro-Mediterranean tree-ring reconstruction of the winter NAO index since 910CE | |
Cook, Edward R.1; Kushnir, Yochanan1; Smerdon, Jason E.1; Williams, A. Park1; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.2,3; Wahl, Eugene R.4 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:1567-1580 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | We develop a new reconstruction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index using a network of 97Euro-Mediterranean tree-ring series. The reconstruction covers the period 910-2018C.E., making it the longest annually resolved estimate of winter NAO variability available. We use nested correlation-weighted principal components regression and the Maximum Entropy Bootstrap method to generate a 2400-member ensemble of reconstructions for estimating the final reconstruction and its quantile uncertainties. Extensive validation testing of the new reconstruction against data withheld from the calibration exercise demonstrates its skill. The skill level of the new reconstruction is also an improvement over two NAO reconstructions published earlier. Spectral analyses indicate that the new reconstruction behaves like a white noise' process with intermittent band-limited power, suggesting that the winter NAO is stochastically forced. The white noise' properties of our reconstruction are also shown to be consistent with the spectral properties of long instrumental NAO indices extending back to 1781 and NAO indices extracted from a large number of forced climate model runs covering the last millennium. In contrast, an annually resolved multi-proxy NAO reconstruction of comparable length, based in part on speleothem data, behaves more like externally forced red noise' process, which is inconsistent with our reconstruction, long observations, and forced model runs. |
英文关键词 | North Atlantic Oscillation Euro-Mediterranean tree rings Millennium reconstruction Stochastic forcing |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000475558800019 |
WOS关键词 | NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; CLIMATE ; TEMPERATURES ; VARIABILITY ; GREENLAND ; BACK ; SIMULATIONS ; SPELEOTHEM ; SPECTRUM ; SIGNALS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185413 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964 USA; 2.Univ Arizona, Sch Geog & Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA; 3.Univ Arizona, Lab Tree Ring Res, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA; 4.NOAA, World Data Serv Paleoclimatol, Natl Ctr Environm Informat, 325 Broadway St, Boulder, CO 80305 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cook, Edward R.,Kushnir, Yochanan,Smerdon, Jason E.,et al. A Euro-Mediterranean tree-ring reconstruction of the winter NAO index since 910CE[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:1567-1580. |
APA | Cook, Edward R.,Kushnir, Yochanan,Smerdon, Jason E.,Williams, A. Park,Anchukaitis, Kevin J.,&Wahl, Eugene R..(2019).A Euro-Mediterranean tree-ring reconstruction of the winter NAO index since 910CE.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,1567-1580. |
MLA | Cook, Edward R.,et al."A Euro-Mediterranean tree-ring reconstruction of the winter NAO index since 910CE".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):1567-1580. |
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