资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The West African climate is unique and challenging to reproduce using standard resolution climate models as a large proportion of precipitation comes from organised deep convection. For the first time, a regional 4.5km convection permitting simulation was performed on a pan-African domain for a period of 10years (1997-2006). The 4.5km simulation (CP4A) is compared with a 25x40km convection-parameterised model (R25) over West Africa. CP4A shows increased mean precipitation, which results in improvements in the mature phase of the West African monsoon but deterioration in the early and late phases. The distribution of precipitation rates is improved due to more short lasting intense rainfall events linked with mesoscale convective systems. Consequently, the CP4A model shows a better representation of wet and dry spells both at the daily and sub-daily time-scales. The diurnal cycle of rainfall is improved, which impacts the diurnal cycle of monsoon winds and increases moisture convergence in the Sahel. Although shortcomings were identified, with implications for model development, this convection-permitting model provides a much more reliable precipitation distribution than its convection-parameterised counterpart at both daily and sub-daily time-scales. Convection-permitting scales will therefore be useful to address the crucial question of how the precipitation distribution will change in the future.