GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab28a6
Projected near term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon and its uncertainty
Tian, Fangxing1; Dong, Buwen1; Robson, Jon1; Sutton, Rowan1; Tett, Simon F. B.2
2019-08-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2019
卷号14期号:8
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England; Scotland
英文摘要

Changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the mid-21st century relative to present day are simulated in two related models GOML1 and GOML2. Both models are the atmospheric components of two state-of-the-art climate models coupled to a multi-level mixed-layer ocean model, following the RCP 4.5 scenario. Both show that the EASM is enhanced due to the amplified land-sea thermal contrast. Summer precipitation over northern China is projected to increase by 5%-10% in both models mainly driven by enhancement of the monsoon circulation. Over south-eastern China the two models project different signs of precipitation change: a decrease in GOML1 with the maximum of about -1.0 mm d(-1) and an increase in GOML2 with a maximum of around 1.0 mm d(-1). Though the thermal effect of climate warming leads to a projected increase in precipitation over south-eastern China in both models, circulation changes are opposite and dominate the precipitation response. This indicates that uncertainty in changes in projected precipitation largely arises from uncertainly in projected circulation changes. The different circulation changes in the two models are likely related to differences in projected Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Western tropical Pacific and North Pacific. In GOML1, the SST warming in the tropical Pacific is associated with an anomalous local Hadley circulation, characterized by anomalous ascent in the tropics and southern subtropics, and anomalous descent with less precipitation over south-eastern China. In GOML2, the large decrease in the meridional SST gradient between the South China Sea and Western North Pacific is associated with an anomalous local Hadley circulation with anomalous ascent at 20 degrees N-30 degrees N and anomalous descent at 5 degrees N-15 degrees N, leading to an anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly over the South China Sea and increased precipitation over south-eastern China.


英文关键词East-Asia-summer-monsoon (EASM) local-Hadley-circulation SST-gradient projected-precipitation-change climate-warming uncertainty
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000479108700001
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; AEROSOLS ; CMIP5 ; GASES ; CHINA
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185619
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England;
2.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, Midlothian, Scotland
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GB/T 7714
Tian, Fangxing,Dong, Buwen,Robson, Jon,et al. Projected near term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon and its uncertainty[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(8).
APA Tian, Fangxing,Dong, Buwen,Robson, Jon,Sutton, Rowan,&Tett, Simon F. B..(2019).Projected near term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon and its uncertainty.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(8).
MLA Tian, Fangxing,et al."Projected near term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon and its uncertainty".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.8(2019).
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