Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR024446 |
A Weather-Regime-Based Stochastic Weather Generator for Climate Vulnerability Assessments of Water Systems in the Western United States | |
Steinschneider, Scott1; Ray, Patrick2; Rahat, Saiful Haque2; Kucharski, John3 | |
2019-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 55期号:8页码:6923-6945 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Vulnerability-based frameworks are increasingly used to better understand water system performance under climate change. This work advances the use of stochastic weather generators for climate vulnerability assessments that simulate weather based on patterns of regional atmospheric flow (i.e., weather regimes) conditioned on global-scale climate features. The model is semiparametric by design and includes (1) a nonhomogeneous Markov chain for weather regime simulation; (2) block bootstrapping and a Gaussian copula for multivariate, multisite weather simulation; and (3) modules to impose thermodynamic and dynamical climate change, including Clausius-Clapeyron precipitation scaling, elevation-dependent warming, and shifting dynamics of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this way, the model can be used to evaluate climate impacts on water systems based on hypotheses of dynamic and thermodynamic climate change. The model is developed and tested for cold-season climate in the Tuolumne River Basin in California but is broadly applicable across the western United States. Results show that eight weather regimes exert strong influences over local climate in the Tuolumne Basin. Model simulations adequately preserve many of the historical statistics for precipitation and temperature across sites, including the mean, variance, skew, and extreme values. Annual precipitation and temperature are somewhat underdispersed, and precipitation spell statistics are negatively biased by 1-2 days. For simulations of future climate, the model can generate a range of Clausius-Clapeyron scaling relationships and modes of elevation-dependent warming. Model simulations also suggest a muted response of Tuolumne climate to changes in ENSO variability. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000490973700033 |
WOS关键词 | EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; FUTURE CHANGES ; CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIPITATION ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; TEMPERATURE ; FREQUENCY ; MODEL ; CMIP5 ; INTENSIFICATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/185873 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Cornell Univ, Dept Biol & Environm Engn, Ithaca, NY 14850 USA; 2.Univ Cincinnati, Dept Chem & Environm Engn, Cincinnati, OH USA; 3.Hydrol Engn Ctr, Inst Water Resources, Davis, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Steinschneider, Scott,Ray, Patrick,Rahat, Saiful Haque,et al. A Weather-Regime-Based Stochastic Weather Generator for Climate Vulnerability Assessments of Water Systems in the Western United States[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019,55(8):6923-6945. |
APA | Steinschneider, Scott,Ray, Patrick,Rahat, Saiful Haque,&Kucharski, John.(2019).A Weather-Regime-Based Stochastic Weather Generator for Climate Vulnerability Assessments of Water Systems in the Western United States.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,55(8),6923-6945. |
MLA | Steinschneider, Scott,et al."A Weather-Regime-Based Stochastic Weather Generator for Climate Vulnerability Assessments of Water Systems in the Western United States".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55.8(2019):6923-6945. |
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