资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

A revised predictor called the net energy gain rate (NGR) is suggested by considering wind-dependent drag coefficient based on the existing maximum potential intensity theory. A series of wind speed-dependent NGR, known as NGR-w, is calculated based on pretropical cyclone (TC) averaged ocean temperatures from the surface down to 120 m (at 10-m intervals) to include the TC-induced vertical mixing for 13 years (2004-2016) in the western North Pacific. It turns out that NGR(50)-w (NGR-w based on temperature averaged over top 50 m) has the highest correlation with 24-hr TC intensity change compared with the commonly used sea surface temperature-based intensification potential (POT), depth-averaged temperature-based POT (POT DAT), and constant drag coefficient in the NGR. To demonstrate the effectiveness of NGR(50)-w, we designed and conducted experiments for training (2004-2014) and testing (2015-2016). The model with NGR(50)-w shows greater skill than does the model with POTDAT or POT by reducing prediction errors by about 16%.