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DOI | 10.1029/2019GL083855 |
The Signal-to-Noise Paradox for Interannual Surface Atmospheric Temperature Predictions | |
Sevellec, F.1,2; Drijfhout, S. S.2,3,4 | |
2019-08-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:15页码:9031-9041 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; England; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | The "signal-to-noise paradox" implies that climate models are better at predicting observations than themselves. Here, it is shown that this apparent paradox is expected when the relative level of predicted signal is weaker in models than in observations. In the presence of model error, the paradox only occurs in the range of small signal-to-noise ratio of the model, occurring for even smaller model signal-to-noise ratio with increasing model error. This paradox is always a signature of the prediction unreliability. Applying this concept to noninitialized simulations of Surface Atmospheric Temperature (SAT) of the CMIP5 database, under the assumption that prediction skill is associated with persistence, shows that global mean SAT is marginally less persistent in models than in observations. However, at a local scale, the analysis suggests that similar to 70% of the globe exhibits the signal-to-noise paradox for local SAT interannual forecasts and that the Signal-to-Noise Paradox occurs especially over the oceans. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000483812500047 |
WOS关键词 | FORECASTS ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186053 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Brest, Lab Oceanog Phys & Spatiale, CNRS, IRD,IFREMER, Brest, France; 2.Univ Southampton, Ocean & Earth Sci, Southampton, Hants, England; 3.Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorol Inst, De Bilt, Netherlands; 4.Univ Utrecht, Inst Marine & Atmospher Sci, Utrecht, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sevellec, F.,Drijfhout, S. S.. The Signal-to-Noise Paradox for Interannual Surface Atmospheric Temperature Predictions[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(15):9031-9041. |
APA | Sevellec, F.,&Drijfhout, S. S..(2019).The Signal-to-Noise Paradox for Interannual Surface Atmospheric Temperature Predictions.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(15),9031-9041. |
MLA | Sevellec, F.,et al."The Signal-to-Noise Paradox for Interannual Surface Atmospheric Temperature Predictions".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.15(2019):9031-9041. |
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