GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2019GL083526
Skillful Prediction of Monthly Major Hurricane Activity in the North Atlantic with Two-way Nesting
Gao, Kun1; Chen, Jan-Huey2,3; Harris, Lucas2; Sun, Yongqiang1; Lin, Shian-Jiann2
2019-08-16
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2019
卷号46期号:15页码:9222-9230
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

We investigate the monthly prediction of North Atlantic hurricane and especially major hurricane activity based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). We compare the performance of two grid configurations: a globally uniform 25-km grid and the other with an 8-km interactive nest over the tropical North Atlantic. Both grid configurations show skills in predicting anomalous monthly hurricane frequency and accumulated cyclone energy. Particularly, the 8-km nested model shows improved skills in predicting major hurricane frequency and accumulated cyclone energy. The skill in anomalous monthly hurricane occurrence prediction arises from the accurate prediction of zonal wind shear anomalies in the Main Development Region, which in turn arises from the sea surface temperature anomalies persisted from the initialization time. The enhanced resolution on the nested grid permits a better representation of hurricanes and especially intense hurricanes, thereby showing the ability and the potential for prediction of major hurricanes on subseasonal timescales.


Plain Language Summary This study provides the first attempt to predict hurricane and especially major hurricane activity over a month using a global atmospheric model. We highlight the performance of a two-way-nested grid configuration, in which the model resolution is locally enhanced in the tropical North Atlantic. Such configuration is a computationally affordable way to permit better simulation of intense hurricanes and demonstrates promising skills in predicting the occurrence of major hurricanes and their wind energy over a month.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000483812500067
WOS关键词TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS ; MODEL ; CIRCULATION ; FORECASTS
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186073
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Princeton Univ, Program Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA;
2.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA;
3.Univ Corp Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO USA
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GB/T 7714
Gao, Kun,Chen, Jan-Huey,Harris, Lucas,et al. Skillful Prediction of Monthly Major Hurricane Activity in the North Atlantic with Two-way Nesting[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(15):9222-9230.
APA Gao, Kun,Chen, Jan-Huey,Harris, Lucas,Sun, Yongqiang,&Lin, Shian-Jiann.(2019).Skillful Prediction of Monthly Major Hurricane Activity in the North Atlantic with Two-way Nesting.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(15),9222-9230.
MLA Gao, Kun,et al."Skillful Prediction of Monthly Major Hurricane Activity in the North Atlantic with Two-way Nesting".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.15(2019):9222-9230.
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