Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019JD031139 |
MJO Propagation Processes and Mean Biases in the SubX and S2S Reforecasts | |
Kim, Hyemi1; Janiga, Matthew A.2; Pegion, Kathy3 | |
2019-08-27 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 124期号:16页码:9314-9331 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the leading source of global subseasonal predictability; however, many dynamical forecasting systems struggle to predict MJO propagation through the Maritime Continent. Better understanding the biases in simulated physical processes associated with MJO propagation is the key to improve MJO prediction. In this study, MJO prediction skill, propagation processes, and mean state biases are evaluated in reforecasts from models participating in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) and Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction projects. SubX and S2S reforecasts show MJO prediction skill out to 4.5 weeks based on the Real-time Multivariate MJO index consistent with previous studies. However, a closer examination of these models' representation of MJO propagation through the Maritime Continent reveals that they fail to predict the MJO convection, associated circulations, and moisture advection processes beyond 10 days with most of models underestimating MJO amplitude. The biases in the MJO propagation can be partly associated with the following mean biases across the Indo-Pacific: a drier low troposphere, excess surface precipitation, more frequent occurrence of light precipitation rates, and a transition to stronger precipitation rates at lower humidity than in observations. This indicates that deep convection occurs too frequently in models and is not sufficiently inhibited when tropospheric moisture is low, which is likely due to the representation of entrainment. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000490762800024 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY ; WATER-VAPOR ; MARITIME CONTINENT ; VERTICAL STRUCTURE ; PREDICTION SKILL ; MOISTURE MODES ; ECMWF MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; PREDICTABILITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186160 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.SUNY Stony Brook, Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA; 2.Naval Res Lab, Marine Meteorol Div, Monterey, CA USA; 3.George Mason Univ, Dept Atmospher Ocean & Earth Sci, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kim, Hyemi,Janiga, Matthew A.,Pegion, Kathy. MJO Propagation Processes and Mean Biases in the SubX and S2S Reforecasts[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(16):9314-9331. |
APA | Kim, Hyemi,Janiga, Matthew A.,&Pegion, Kathy.(2019).MJO Propagation Processes and Mean Biases in the SubX and S2S Reforecasts.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(16),9314-9331. |
MLA | Kim, Hyemi,et al."MJO Propagation Processes and Mean Biases in the SubX and S2S Reforecasts".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.16(2019):9314-9331. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论