Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL084401 |
Spatiotemporal Variability of Twenty-First-Century Changes in Site-Specific Snowfall Frequency Over the Northwest United States | |
Catalano, A. J.1; Loikith, P. C.1; Aragon, C. M.2 | |
2019-08-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:16页码:10122-10131 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | In the Northwest United States, warming temperatures threaten mountain snowpacks. Reliable projections of snowfall changes are therefore critical to anticipate the timeline of change. However, producing such projections is challenging, as most state-of-the-art climate models are limited in sufficiently resolving influential topography. Here we leverage atmospheric freezing level to estimate precipitation phase and project twenty-first-century snowfall frequency change at Snowpack Telemetry Network stations across the Northwest. Under "moderate" and "business-as-usual" emission pathways in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models, snowfall frequency is projected to decline at all stations. Business-as-usual declines accelerate after midcentury at most locations, whereas moderate declines decelerate. A "critical year" analysis identifies when decadal-mean snowfall frequency is projected to fall below 50%, 25%, and 10% of cold-season wet days. Results highlight regions particularly vulnerable to relatively near-term change, such as the Cascade Range. Considerable station-to-station spatial variability emphasizes the value of this site-specific approach. Plain Language Summary In the Northwest United States, warming temperatures threaten mountain snow resources, which supply freshwater in watersheds throughout the region. Reliable estimates of future snowfall changes are therefore crucial to determine the timeline over which these changes may occur. However, the tools generally used to estimate future snowfall, climate models, have difficulty calculating local changes across mountainous landscapes. Towards addressing this challenge, we use the height where temperature equals freezing to estimate snowfall versus rainfall occurrence over this century, from which snowfall frequency changes in climate models are calculated at point locations across the Northwest. Under "business-as-usual" and "moderate" greenhouse gas emissions, average snowfall frequency is estimated to decline at all sites by 2100. The rate of decline under business-as-usual emissions increases in the latter half of this century at most locations, whereas moderate rates decrease. A "critical year" identifies when the number of snow days averaged over 10 years falls below 50%, 25%, and 10% of all days receiving rain or snow. Results highlight regions that may experience critical snowfall frequency declines sooner, such as the Cascade Range. Differences among locations are considerable, emphasizing the value of this site-specific approach. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000490966700088 |
WOS关键词 | DECLINING MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK ; FREEZING-LEVEL ; AIR-TEMPERATURE ; WESTERN ; CLIMATE ; CALIFORNIA ; TRENDS ; IMPACT ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186203 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Portland State Univ, Dept Geog, Portland, OR 97207 USA; 2.Oregon State Univ, Water Resources Sci, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Catalano, A. J.,Loikith, P. C.,Aragon, C. M.. Spatiotemporal Variability of Twenty-First-Century Changes in Site-Specific Snowfall Frequency Over the Northwest United States[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(16):10122-10131. |
APA | Catalano, A. J.,Loikith, P. C.,&Aragon, C. M..(2019).Spatiotemporal Variability of Twenty-First-Century Changes in Site-Specific Snowfall Frequency Over the Northwest United States.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(16),10122-10131. |
MLA | Catalano, A. J.,et al."Spatiotemporal Variability of Twenty-First-Century Changes in Site-Specific Snowfall Frequency Over the Northwest United States".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.16(2019):10122-10131. |
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