资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

On top of a declining trend driven by global warming, the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) exhibits considerable interannual variations. In this study, we analyze the interannual anomalies of September SIE in relation to the surface radiation anomalies. We find that the accumulation of radiation energy in the early months (June, July, and August) very well explains the September SIE variability (R-2 = 0.81). In Particular, strong correlations are found between September SIE and June radiation anomalies, which in the shortwave is due to cloud and surface albedo changes and in the longwave due to atmospheric warming. The results show that monitoring the radiation anomalies affords a potential means to improve the prediction of the late summer sea ice.

Plain Language Summary This work investigates the relationship between radiation flux and sea ice extent anomalies in the Arctic. We for the first time investigate both the top-of-atmosphere and surface radiation anomalies, together with their atmospheric and surface contribution components, in relation to the interannual sea ice variations. This investigation discloses the major radiative drivers of the late summer sea ice anomalies: the cloud forcing in the shortwave (solar radiation) and atmospheric warming in the longwave (terrestrial thermal radiation). These findings provide clues for improving sea ice prediction and afford means to validate and improve its simulation in the dynamical models.