GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s10584-019-02497-4
Assessing the degree of hydrologic stress due to climate change
Nathan, R. J.; McMahon, T. A.; Peel, M. C.; Horne, A.
2019-09-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2019
卷号156页码:87-104
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia
英文摘要

Hydrologists are commonly involved in impact, adaption and vulnerability assessments for climate change projections. This paper presents a framework for how such assessments can better differentiate between the impacts of climate change and those of natural variability, an important differentiation as it relates to the vulnerability to water availability under change. The key concept involved is to characterize "hydrologic stress" relative to the range of behaviour encountered under baseline conditions, where the degree to which climate change causes the behaviour of a system to shift outside this baseline range provides a non-dimensional measure of stress. The concept is applicable to any system that is subject to climate forcings, though the approach is applied here to a range of examples illustrative of many environmental and engineering applications. These include hydrologic systems that are dependent on the frequency of flows above or below selected thresholds, those that are dominated by storage and those which are sensitive to the sequencing of selected flow components. The analyses illustrate that systems designed or adapted to accommodate high variability are less stressed by a given magnitude of climate impacts than those operating under more uniform conditions. The metrics characterize hydrologic stress in a manner that can facilitate comparison across different regions, or across different assets within a region. Adoption of the approach requires reliance on the use of climate ensembles that represent aleatory uncertainty under both baseline and impacted conditions, and this has implications for how the outputs of climate models are provided and utilized.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000491497800001
WOS关键词DOWNSCALING METHODS ; CHANGE IMPACT ; RUNOFF ; VULNERABILITY ; CMIP5 ; PRECIPITATION ; MODELS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186418
专题气候变化
作者单位Univ Melbourne, Infrastruct Engn, Grattan St, Parkville, Vic, Australia
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GB/T 7714
Nathan, R. J.,McMahon, T. A.,Peel, M. C.,et al. Assessing the degree of hydrologic stress due to climate change[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,156:87-104.
APA Nathan, R. J.,McMahon, T. A.,Peel, M. C.,&Horne, A..(2019).Assessing the degree of hydrologic stress due to climate change.CLIMATIC CHANGE,156,87-104.
MLA Nathan, R. J.,et al."Assessing the degree of hydrologic stress due to climate change".CLIMATIC CHANGE 156(2019):87-104.
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