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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab3a10 |
Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer | |
Schurer, Andrew P.1; Hegerl, Gabriele C.1; Luterbacher, Juerg2,3; Broennimand, Stefan4,5; Cowan, Tim1,6; Tett, Simon F. B.1; Zanchettin, Davide7; Timmreck, Claudia8 | |
2019-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:9 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Scotland; Germany; Switzerland; Australia; Italy |
英文摘要 | The European summer of 1816 has often been referred to as a 'year without a summer' due to anomalously cold conditions and unusual wetness, which led to widespread famines and agricultural failures. The cause has often been assumed to be the eruption of Mount Tambora in April 1815, however this link has not, until now, been proven. Here we apply state-of-the-art event attribution methods to quantify the contribution by the eruption and random weather variability to this extreme European summer climate anomaly. By selecting analogue summers that have similar sea-levelpressure patterns to that observed in 1816 from both observations and unperturbed climate model simulations, we show that the circulation state can reproduce the precipitation anomaly without external forcing, but can explain only about a quarter of the anomalously cold conditions. We find that in climate models, including the forcing by the Tambora eruption makes the European cold anomaly up to 100 times more likely, while the precipitation anomaly became 1.5-3 times as likely, attributing a large fraction of the observed anomalies to the volcanic forcing. Our study thus demonstrates how linking regional climate anomalies to large-scale circulation is necessary to quantitatively interpret and attribute post-eruption variability. |
英文关键词 | climate event attribution climate response to volcanic eruptions European summer climate the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000486378700001 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT ; EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN ; VOLCANIC-ERUPTIONS ; EXTREME WEATHER ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; COUPLED MODEL ; CLIMATE ; PRECIPITATION ; PRESSURE ; AEROSOL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186605 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland; 2.Justus Liebig Univ Giessen, Dept Geog Climatol Climate Dynam & Climate Change, Giessen, Germany; 3.Justus Liebig Univ Giessen, Ctr Int Dev & Environm Res, Giessen, Germany; 4.Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland; 5.Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Bern, Switzerland; 6.Univ Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Qld, Australia; 7.Univ CaFoscari Venice, Venice, Italy; 8.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Schurer, Andrew P.,Hegerl, Gabriele C.,Luterbacher, Juerg,et al. Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(9). |
APA | Schurer, Andrew P..,Hegerl, Gabriele C..,Luterbacher, Juerg.,Broennimand, Stefan.,Cowan, Tim.,...&Timmreck, Claudia.(2019).Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(9). |
MLA | Schurer, Andrew P.,et al."Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.9(2019). |
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