Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019WR025520 |
Improved Dynamic System Response Curve Method for Real-Time Flood Forecast Updating | |
Si, Wei1; Gupta, Hoshin, V2; Bao, Weimin1; Jiang, Peng3; Wang, Wenzhuo1 | |
2019-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 55期号:9页码:7493-7519 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | The dynamic system response curve (DSRC) method has been shown to effectively use error feedback correction to obtain updated areal estimates of mean rainfall and thereby improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasts. In this study, we address two main shortcomings of the existing method. First, ridge estimation is used to deal with ill-conditioning of the normal equation coefficient matrix when the method is applied to small basins, or when the length of updating rainfall series is short. Second, the effects of spatial heterogeneity of rainfall on rainfall error estimates are accounted for using a simple index. The improved performance of the method is demonstrated using both synthetic and real data studies. For smaller basins with relatively homogeneous spatial distributions of rainfall, the use of ridge regression provides more accurate and robust results. For larger-scale basins with significant spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, spatial rainfall error updating provides significant improvements. Overall, combining the two strategies results in the best performance for all cases, with the effects of ridge estimation and spatially distributed updating complementing each other. |
英文关键词 | improved DSRC real-time flood forecasting rainfall heterogeneity spatially distributed rainfall error estimation ridge estimation operational hydrology |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000492139200003 |
WOS关键词 | ILL-POSED PROBLEMS ; XINANJIANG MODEL ; RIVER-BASIN ; INPUT UNCERTAINTY ; BAYESIAN-ANALYSIS ; STREAMFLOW ; PRECIPITATION ; ERROR ; SOIL ; REGULARIZATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186907 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Hohai Univ, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Atmospher Sci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA; 3.Desert Res Inst, Div Hydrol Sci, Las Vegas, NV USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Si, Wei,Gupta, Hoshin, V,Bao, Weimin,et al. Improved Dynamic System Response Curve Method for Real-Time Flood Forecast Updating[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019,55(9):7493-7519. |
APA | Si, Wei,Gupta, Hoshin, V,Bao, Weimin,Jiang, Peng,&Wang, Wenzhuo.(2019).Improved Dynamic System Response Curve Method for Real-Time Flood Forecast Updating.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,55(9),7493-7519. |
MLA | Si, Wei,et al."Improved Dynamic System Response Curve Method for Real-Time Flood Forecast Updating".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55.9(2019):7493-7519. |
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