GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/joc.6296
The mid-summer drought over Mexico and Central America in the 21st century
Corrales-Suastegui, Arturo1; Fuentes-Franco, Ramon2; Pavia, Edgar G.1
2019-09-11
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2019
文章类型Article;Early Access
语种英语
国家Mexico; Sweden
英文摘要

The southern Mexico and Central America (SMCA) region shows a dominant well-defined precipitation annual cycle. The rainy season usually begins in May and ends in October, with a relatively dry period in July and August known as the mid-summer drought (MSD); notable exceptions are the Caribbean coast of Honduras and Costa Rica. This MSD phenomenon is expected to be affected as the SMCA experiences an enhanced differential warming between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (PO-AO) towards the end of the 21st century. Previous studies have suggested that this differential warming will induce a strengthening of the westward Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) and that this heightened CLLJ will shift precipitation westwards, falling on the PO instead that within the SMCA region causing a severe drought. In this work we examine this scenario with a new model, the Rossby Center Regional Climate Model (RCA4), for the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) Central America domain, forced with different general circulation models (GCMs) and for different representative concentration paths (RCPs). We consider 25-year periods as "present conditions" (1981-2005) and "future scenario" (2071-2095), focusing on the "extended summer" season (May-October). Results suggest that in the future the spatial extension of the MSD will decrease and that in certain areas the MSD will be more intense but less frequent compared to present conditions. Also, the oceanic differential warming, the intensification of the CLLJ, and the reduction in regional precipitation in the future scenario, suggested by previous works, were verified in this study.


英文关键词Central America Mexico mid-summer drought RCA4 regional climate model summer precipitation
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000486176500001
WOS关键词LOW-LEVEL JET ; CLIMATE ; PACIFIC ; CMIP5 ; PROJECTIONS ; FEATURES ; MONSOON ; SEA
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/186997
专题气候变化
作者单位1.CICESE, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico;
2.SMHI, Norkkoping, Sweden
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Corrales-Suastegui, Arturo,Fuentes-Franco, Ramon,Pavia, Edgar G.. The mid-summer drought over Mexico and Central America in the 21st century[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019.
APA Corrales-Suastegui, Arturo,Fuentes-Franco, Ramon,&Pavia, Edgar G..(2019).The mid-summer drought over Mexico and Central America in the 21st century.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY.
MLA Corrales-Suastegui, Arturo,et al."The mid-summer drought over Mexico and Central America in the 21st century".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019).
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