Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.04.034 |
Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries | |
Wahiduzzaman, Md1; Yeasmin, Alea2,3 | |
2019-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 227页码:89-100 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Bangladesh |
英文摘要 | This paper investigates the forecast potential of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall probabilities over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries using ocean-climate predictor variables in a new statistical seasonal forecast model. A Poisson regression model was used to predict the landfall probabilities for a period of 35 years of TC observations (1979-2013) from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the predictor variables include sea surface temperature, Southern Oscillation Index and ocean heat content. Poisson regression was found skilful in hindcasting of tropical cyclone landfall frequency for the NIO region with a correlation coefficient in the forecasted hindcast time series of 0.65 and 31% improvement above climatology. In the present study, genesis was modelled by kernel density estimation, tracks were fitted using a generalised additive model (GAM) approach with a Euler integration step, and landfall location was estimated using a country mask. This GAM model that is previously demonstrated very skilful to simulate TC landfall across the NIO rim countries by Wahiduzzaman et al. (2017, 2019) deems skilful for this study. |
英文关键词 | Statistical forecasting Tropical cyclones Poisson Regression Generalised Additive Model North Indian Ocean |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000472688500008 |
WOS关键词 | HURRICANE RISK ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODEL ; BAY ; TRACKS ; ENSO ; VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL ; SIMULATIONS ; OSCILLATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187189 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Tasmania, Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia; 2.RMIT Univ, SPACE Res Ctr, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 3.Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Sci & Technol U, Gopalganj, Bangladesh |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wahiduzzaman, Md,Yeasmin, Alea. Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2019,227:89-100. |
APA | Wahiduzzaman, Md,&Yeasmin, Alea.(2019).Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,227,89-100. |
MLA | Wahiduzzaman, Md,et al."Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall activities over the North Indian Ocean rim countries".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 227(2019):89-100. |
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