Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04734-z |
Decadal predictability of temperature and precipitation means and extremes in a perfect-model experiment | |
Liu, Yiling1,2; Donat, Markus G.1,2,3; Rust, Henning W.4; Alexander, Lisa V.1,2; England, Matthew H.1,2 | |
2019-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
![]() |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:3711-3729 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Spain; Germany |
英文摘要 | The assessment of predictability for decadal predictions of quantities like temperature and precipitation typically focuses on regional and temporal mean values. However, changes in extremes can be different to changes in mean climate, and accordingly their predictability may be different. We use simulations from CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 (CMIP5 archive) to set up a `perfect model' experiment to compare the predictability for mean and extreme temperature and precipitation on interannual to decadal time-scales. The results show that both the mean and likelihood of near-surface temperature extremes is potentially predictable in many regions in the first lead year, while the areas with precipitation predictability tend to be mostly in lowlatitude regions during this period. On decadal time scales, significant potential skill for mean and extreme temperatures is found over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean but also over some land areas including North Africa, Europe and North America. The general spatial patterns of predictability are very similar between the mean and extremes. However, indices of moderate temperature extremes in particular show a tendency towards higher predictability than the mean. The approach to studying predictability presented here uses international coordinated model intercomparison project simulations. However a larger number of different initializations would be required from more models to allow improved robustness of the results. |
英文关键词 | Climate prediction Predictability Precipitation Temperature Climate extremes Perfect model CMIP5 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000489753900001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE PREDICTABILITY ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; SKILL SCORES ; INDEXES ; CIRCULATION ; PREDICTIONS ; ENSEMBLE ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187190 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.UNSW, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 2.UNSW, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 3.BSC, Barcelona, Spain; 4.Free Univ Berlin, Inst Meteorol, Berlin, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Yiling,Donat, Markus G.,Rust, Henning W.,et al. Decadal predictability of temperature and precipitation means and extremes in a perfect-model experiment[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:3711-3729. |
APA | Liu, Yiling,Donat, Markus G.,Rust, Henning W.,Alexander, Lisa V.,&England, Matthew H..(2019).Decadal predictability of temperature and precipitation means and extremes in a perfect-model experiment.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,3711-3729. |
MLA | Liu, Yiling,et al."Decadal predictability of temperature and precipitation means and extremes in a perfect-model experiment".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):3711-3729. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论