GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-019-04800-6
Seasonal forecasts of the East African long rains: insight from atmospheric relaxation experiments
MacLeod, David
2019-10-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号53页码:4505-4520
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England
英文摘要

The impacts of recent droughts and floods over East Africa may have been avoided with accurate and timely early warnings. However skillful predictions for the long rains season from dynamical seasonal forecasts have long proved elusive and understanding of the drivers of interannual variability of this season is incomplete. Although recent work has highlighted several candidates for key drivers of variability during March-April, the representation of East African precipitation and links to remote processes in seasonal climate models is relatively unknown. This is investigated here through use of the atmospheric relaxation technique in coupled seasonal climate hindcast experiments, which also provide an estimate of the upper bound of seasonal predictability from remote sources. Results highlight the key role of the lower troposphere in the northwest Indian Ocean in controlling interannual variability, particularly in March and April. This is in support of recent work suggesting ascent-induced boundary-layer heating this region as a key driver of interannual variability. Results from single-variable relaxation experiments also reveal the importance of correct simulation of humidity for the proper representation of this link. Processes in the southwest Indian Ocean provide a control on May precipitation over southwest Kenya and northern Tanzania, highlighting the role of Somali jet variability in long rains cessation. Relaxation in more remote regions over the Pacific is unable to improve the representation of interannual variability over East Africa in general, although variability in the east Pacific appears to provide a weak control on March rainfall, consistent with previous hypotheses linking decaying ENSO events to early season rainfall. Finally, modelled precipitation anomalies are found to be insufficiently constrained to the coast of Africa. Relaxation (particularly in the northwest Indian Ocean) can improve these spatial biases, however the variance explained by these modes is systematically underestimated in the model and appears insensitive to remote processes. Inadequate representation of local processes over East Africa is proposed as the cause of this underestimation and several candidates are outlined.


英文关键词East Africa Seasonal prediction Forecasting Drought Flood Forecast-based action
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000489753900042
WOS关键词PREDICTABILITY ; RAINFALL ; PRECIPITATION ; CLIMATOLOGY ; WINTER ; MODEL
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187231
专题气候变化
作者单位Univ Oxford, Atmospher Ocean & Planetary Phys Clarendon Lab, Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3PU, England
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
MacLeod, David. Seasonal forecasts of the East African long rains: insight from atmospheric relaxation experiments[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:4505-4520.
APA MacLeod, David.(2019).Seasonal forecasts of the East African long rains: insight from atmospheric relaxation experiments.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,4505-4520.
MLA MacLeod, David."Seasonal forecasts of the East African long rains: insight from atmospheric relaxation experiments".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):4505-4520.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[MacLeod, David]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[MacLeod, David]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[MacLeod, David]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。