Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04842-w |
Future precipitation changes over Panama projected with the atmospheric global model MRI-AGCM3.2 | |
Kusunoki, Shoji1,2; Nakaegawa, Tosiyuki1; Pinzon, Reinhardt3; Sanchez-Galan, Javier E.4,5; Fabrega, Jose R.3 | |
2019-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:5019-5034 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan; Panama |
英文摘要 | Future change in precipitation over Panama was investigated with 20-km and 60-km mesh global atmospheric models. The present-day climate simulations were conducted for 21 years from 1983 through 2003, driving models by observed historical sea surface temperatures (SST). The future climate simulations were conducted for 21 years from 2079 through 2099, driving models by future SST distributions projected by the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models that participated in the Fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The uncertainty of future precipitation change was evaluated by ensemble simulations giving four different SST patterns and three different cumulus convection schemes. In the future, precipitation increases over the central and eastern part of Panama from May to November corresponding to the rainy season. Uncertainty of future precipitation change depends on cumulus convection schemes rather than SST distributions. Increase of precipitation over most regions can be attributed to the increase of water vapor transport originated in the Caribbean Sea which converges over Panama. Precipitation averaged over the Panama canal, the Gatun lake and related river basin (79.0 degrees-80.5 degrees W, 8.5 degrees-9.5 degrees N) will increase during most of the rainy season persisting from May to October, while precipitation in dry season persisting from December to April does not change in the future. Intense precipitation increases, but the possibility of drought increases. These results suggest that the planning of water resource management for the Panama canal may require some modifications in the future. |
英文关键词 | Precipitation Panama Global warming projection High resolution model |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000489753900070 |
WOS关键词 | LOW-LEVEL JET ; CENTRAL-AMERICA ; CARIBBEAN RAINFALL ; MIDSUMMER DROUGHT ; CLIMATE ; ATLANTIC ; VARIABILITY ; CIRCULATION ; RESOLUTION ; PACIFIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187259 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Meteorol Res Inst, Global Atmosphere Ocean Res Dept, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan; 2.Kansai Univ, Fac Societal Safety Sci, Osaka, Japan; 3.Technol Univ Panama, Ctr Hydraul & Hydrotech Res CIHH, Panama City, Panama; 4.Technol Univ Panama, Agroind Res & Prod Ctr CEPIA, Panama City, Panama; 5.Inst Adv Sci Res & High Technol INDICASAT, Panama City, Panama |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kusunoki, Shoji,Nakaegawa, Tosiyuki,Pinzon, Reinhardt,et al. Future precipitation changes over Panama projected with the atmospheric global model MRI-AGCM3.2[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:5019-5034. |
APA | Kusunoki, Shoji,Nakaegawa, Tosiyuki,Pinzon, Reinhardt,Sanchez-Galan, Javier E.,&Fabrega, Jose R..(2019).Future precipitation changes over Panama projected with the atmospheric global model MRI-AGCM3.2.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,5019-5034. |
MLA | Kusunoki, Shoji,et al."Future precipitation changes over Panama projected with the atmospheric global model MRI-AGCM3.2".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):5019-5034. |
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