Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0833.1 |
Effect of Tropical Nonconvective Condensation on Uncertainty in Modeled Projections of Rainfall | |
Stephens, Benjamin A.1,2; Jackson, Charles S.2; Wagman, Benjamin M.2,3 | |
2019-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:19页码:6571-6588 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | We find that part of the uncertainty in the amplitude and pattern of the modeled precipitation response to CO2 forcing traces to tropical condensation not directly involved with parameterized convection. The fraction of tropical rainfall associated with large-scale condensation can vary from a few percent to well over half depending on model details and parameter settings. In turn, because of the coupling between condensation and tropical circulation, the different ways model assumptions affect the large-scale rainfall fraction also affect the patterns of the response within individual models. In two single-model ensembles based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), versions 3.1 and 5.3, we find strong correlations between the fraction of tropical large-scale rain and both climatological rainfall and circulation and the response to CO2 forcing. While the effects of an increasing tropical large-scale rain fraction are opposite in some ways in the two ensembles-for example, the Hadley circulation weakens with the large-scale rainfall fraction in the CAM3.1 ensemble while strengthening in the CAM5.3 ensemble-we can nonetheless understand these different effects in terms of the relationship between latent heating and circulation, and we propose explanations for each ensemble. We compare these results with data from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), for which some of the same patterns hold. Given the importance of this partitioning, there is a need for constraining this source of uncertainty using observations. However, since a "large-scale rainfall fraction" is a modeling construct, it is not clear how observations may be used to test various modeling assumptions determining this fraction. |
英文关键词 | Hadley circulation Precipitation Climate prediction Ensembles Parameterization |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000484514300002 |
WOS关键词 | COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL ; LARGE-SCALE MOTIONS ; CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ; PRECIPITATION CHANGE ; STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; FUTURE CHANGES ; CAM5 PHYSICS ; CIRCULATION ; CONVECTION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187432 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Texas Austin, Dept Phys, Austin, TX 78712 USA; 2.Univ Texas Austin, Inst Geophys, Austin, TX 78712 USA; 3.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Stephens, Benjamin A.,Jackson, Charles S.,Wagman, Benjamin M.. Effect of Tropical Nonconvective Condensation on Uncertainty in Modeled Projections of Rainfall[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(19):6571-6588. |
APA | Stephens, Benjamin A.,Jackson, Charles S.,&Wagman, Benjamin M..(2019).Effect of Tropical Nonconvective Condensation on Uncertainty in Modeled Projections of Rainfall.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(19),6571-6588. |
MLA | Stephens, Benjamin A.,et al."Effect of Tropical Nonconvective Condensation on Uncertainty in Modeled Projections of Rainfall".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.19(2019):6571-6588. |
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