Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL084018 |
Probing the Sources of Uncertainty in Transient Warming on Different Timescales | |
Lutsko, Nicholas J.1; Popp, Max2 | |
2019-10-22 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; France |
英文摘要 | The rate of transient warming is determined by a number of factors, notably the radiative forcing from increasing CO2 concentrations and the net radiative feedback. Uncertainty in transient warming comes from both the uncertainty in each factor and from the warming's sensitivity to uncertainty in each factor. An energy balance model is used to untangle these two components of uncertainty in transient warming, which is shown to be most sensitive to uncertainty in the forcing and not to uncertainty in radiative feedbacks. Additionally, uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake is more important than uncertainty in the rate of ocean heat uptake. Three further implications are as follows: (1) transient warming is highly sensitive to uncertainty in emissions, (2) caution is warranted when extrapolating future warming trends from short-lived climate perturbations, and (3) climate models tuned using the historical record are highly sensitive to assumptions made about the historical forcing. |
英文关键词 | climate sensitivity climate change uncertainty radiative forcing radiative feedback |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000494241500001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ; OCEAN ; HEAT |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187756 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.MIT, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 2.Sorbonne Univ, Lab Meteorol Dynam, Ecole Normale Super, Ecole Polytech, Paris, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lutsko, Nicholas J.,Popp, Max. Probing the Sources of Uncertainty in Transient Warming on Different Timescales[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019. |
APA | Lutsko, Nicholas J.,&Popp, Max.(2019).Probing the Sources of Uncertainty in Transient Warming on Different Timescales.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS. |
MLA | Lutsko, Nicholas J.,et al."Probing the Sources of Uncertainty in Transient Warming on Different Timescales".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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