Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04866-2 |
Nonstationary warm spell frequency analysis integrating climate variability and change with application to the Middle East | |
Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.1,4; Charron, Christian1; Kumar, Kondapalli Niranjan2; Phanikumar, Devulapalli Venkata3; Molini, Annalisa4; Basha, Ghouse5 | |
2019-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53页码:5329-5347 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada; India; U Arab Emirates |
英文摘要 | The Middle East can experience extended wintertime spells of exceptionally hot weather, which can result in prolonged droughts and have major impacts on the already scarce water resources of the region. Recent observational studies point at increasing trends in mean and extreme temperatures in the Middle East, while climate projections seem to indicate that, in a warming weather scenario, the frequency, intensity and duration of warm spells will increase. The nonstationary warm spell frequency analysis approach proposed herein allows considering both climate variability through global climatic oscillations and climate change signals. In this study, statistical distributions with parameters conditional on covariates representing time, to account for temporal trend, and climate indices are used to predict the frequency, duration and intensity of wintertime warm spells in the Middle East. Such models could find a large applicability in various fields of climate research, and in particular in the seasonal prediction of warm spell severity. Based on previous studies linking atmospheric circulation patterns in the Atlantic to extreme temperatures in the Middle East, we use as covariates two classic modes of 'fast' and 'slow' climatic variability in the Atlantic Ocean (i.e., the Northern Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation respectively). Results indicate that the use of covariates improves the goodness-of-fit of models for all warm spell characteristics. |
英文关键词 | Winter warm spell Nonstationary model Frequency analysis Climate index Climate change Natural climate variability Statistical distribution Middle East |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000493469900012 |
WOS关键词 | NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; UNITED-STATES ; HEAT-WAVE ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; SUMMER HEAT ; HOT SPELLS ; WIND-SPEED ; PRECIPITATION ; TRENDS ; INFORMATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/187900 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Inst Sci Res, INRS ETE, Canada Res Chair Stat Hydroclimatol, Quebec City, PQ G1K 9A9, Canada; 2.Phys Res Lab, Ahmadabad, Gujarat, India; 3.Minist Sci & Technol, Dept Sci & Technol, Technol Bhawan, New Delhi, India; 4.Masdar Inst Sci & Technol, Inst Ctr Water & Environm iWATER, POB 54224, Abu Dhabi, U Arab Emirates; 5.Dept Space, Natl Atmospher Res Lab, Gadanki 517112, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.,Charron, Christian,Kumar, Kondapalli Niranjan,et al. Nonstationary warm spell frequency analysis integrating climate variability and change with application to the Middle East[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53:5329-5347. |
APA | Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.,Charron, Christian,Kumar, Kondapalli Niranjan,Phanikumar, Devulapalli Venkata,Molini, Annalisa,&Basha, Ghouse.(2019).Nonstationary warm spell frequency analysis integrating climate variability and change with application to the Middle East.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53,5329-5347. |
MLA | Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.,et al."Nonstationary warm spell frequency analysis integrating climate variability and change with application to the Middle East".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53(2019):5329-5347. |
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