Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL083053 |
Spatiotemporal Reliability Ensemble Averaging of Multimodel Simulations | |
Tegegne, Getachew1; Kim, Young-Oh1; Lee, Jac-Kyoung2 | |
2019-11-05 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea |
英文摘要 | Multimodel combining approaches can extract reliable climate information from a large number of climate projections by exploiting the strengths and discounting the weaknesses of each climate simulator; however, most of them (e.g., reliability ensemble averaging [REA]) assign weights to climate simulators without accounting for spatial and temporal variabilities in climate model skills. Here we tested several REAs and proposed a full version that reflects the spatiotemporal (ST) variability of climate model skills. Interperformance evaluations between REA versions showed that, on average, ST-REA reduced the bias by 33.78% and the root mean square error by 11.61%. Therefore, spatial and temporal variabilities in climate model skills can enhance the overall reliability of precipitation projections. ST-REA was applied to project future precipitations over South Korea by combining seven climate models: The spatially averaged projected changes were 2.77%, 8.15%, and 7.58% for the 2020-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099 periods, respectively. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000494352500001 |
WOS关键词 | REGIONAL CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ASSESSING UNCERTAINTIES ; SPATIAL VARIABILITY ; WATER-RESOURCES ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; MODELS ; FLOW ; PRECIPITATION ; PROBABILITY ; TEMPERATURE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/188243 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Seoul Natl Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seoul, South Korea; 2.Daejin Univ, Innovat Ctr Engn Educ, Pochon, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tegegne, Getachew,Kim, Young-Oh,Lee, Jac-Kyoung. Spatiotemporal Reliability Ensemble Averaging of Multimodel Simulations[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019. |
APA | Tegegne, Getachew,Kim, Young-Oh,&Lee, Jac-Kyoung.(2019).Spatiotemporal Reliability Ensemble Averaging of Multimodel Simulations.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS. |
MLA | Tegegne, Getachew,et al."Spatiotemporal Reliability Ensemble Averaging of Multimodel Simulations".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2019). |
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