Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.02.027 |
Oil supply shocks and the US economy: An estimated DSGE model | |
Balke, Nathan S.1,2; Brown, Stephen P. A.3,4 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY
![]() |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 116页码:357-372 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | We develop and use a medium-sized DSGE model of the U.S. economy to evaluate how U.S. real GDP responds to oil price movements that originate from global oil supply shocks. The core of the model is a standard macroeconomic DSGE framework that includes nominal and real frictions. The model includes oil as an input in multiple domestic sectors (consumption, intermediate goods, and transportation services). We include a domestic oil production sector for the United States to reflect the recent development in shale oil technology. The model also captures international trade in goods and oil. The model parameters are set through a combination of calibration and Bayesian estimation using quarterly data for 1991 through 2015. Baseline estimation of the model finds the elasticity of U.S. real GDP with respect to an oil price shock of 0.015, which is among the less elastic estimates in the literature. Using the model to conduct counterfactual analysis, we find that decreasing steady state U.S. oil consumption substantially reduces the response of real GDP to oil prices. Increasing U.S. domestic oil production only modestly reduces the response of real GDP to oil prices. |
英文关键词 | Oil supply shocks DSGE GDP/oil price elasticity Bayesian Estimation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000430758200038 |
WOS关键词 | PRICE SHOCKS ; SECURITY |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/18900 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Southern Methodist Univ, Dept Econ, Dallas, TX 75275 USA; 2.Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, Res Dept, POB 655906, Dallas, TX 75265 USA; 3.Univ Nevada, Dept Econ, 4505 S Maryland Pkwy,MS 6005, Las Vegas, NV 89154 USA; 4.Resources Future Inc, 1616 P St NW, Washington, DC 20036 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Balke, Nathan S.,Brown, Stephen P. A.. Oil supply shocks and the US economy: An estimated DSGE model[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,116:357-372. |
APA | Balke, Nathan S.,&Brown, Stephen P. A..(2018).Oil supply shocks and the US economy: An estimated DSGE model.ENERGY POLICY,116,357-372. |
MLA | Balke, Nathan S.,et al."Oil supply shocks and the US economy: An estimated DSGE model".ENERGY POLICY 116(2018):357-372. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论