Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.08.015 |
Evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules | |
Kavlak, Goksin1; McNerney, James1; Trancik, Jessika E.1,2 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 123页码:700-710 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Photovoltaic (PV) module costs have declined rapidly over forty years but the reasons remain elusive. Here we advance a conceptual framework and quantitative method for quantifying the causes of cost changes in a technology, and apply it to PV modules. Our method begins with a cost model that breaks down cost into variables that changed over time. Cost change equations are then derived to quantify each variable's contribution. We distinguish between changes observed in variables of the cost model - which we term low-level mechanisms of cost reduction - and research and development, learning-by-doing, and scale economies, which we refer to as high-level mechanisms. We find that increased module efficiency was the leading low-level cause of cost reduction in 1980-2012, contributing almost 25% of the decline. Government-funded and private R&D was the most important high-level mechanism over this period. After 2001, however, scale economies became a more significant cause of cost reduction, approaching R&D in importance. Policies that stimulate market growth have played a key role in enabling PV's cost reduction, through privately-funded R&D and scale economies, and to a lecser extent learning-by-doing. The method presented here can be adapted to retrospectively or prospectively study many technologies, and performance metrics besides cost. |
英文关键词 | Photovoltaics (PV) Solar energy PV modules Cost model Technological change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000453499700066 |
WOS关键词 | RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT ; CRYSTALLINE SILICON PHOTOVOLTAICS ; ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES ; LEARNING-CURVE ; ELECTRICITY ; DYNAMICS ; TRENDS ; SCALE ; PRICE ; COMPETITION |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19064 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.MIT, Inst Data Syst & Soc, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 2.Santa Fe Inst, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kavlak, Goksin,McNerney, James,Trancik, Jessika E.. Evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,123:700-710. |
APA | Kavlak, Goksin,McNerney, James,&Trancik, Jessika E..(2018).Evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules.ENERGY POLICY,123,700-710. |
MLA | Kavlak, Goksin,et al."Evaluating the causes of cost reduction in photovoltaic modules".ENERGY POLICY 123(2018):700-710. |
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