Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.11.059 |
Cost overruns and delays in energy megaprojects: How big is big enough? | |
Callegari, C.; Szklo, A.; Schaeffer, R. | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 114页码:211-220 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Brazil |
英文摘要 | Power generation megaprojects are central in energy planning and policy. However, many megaprojects fail to deliver the scale and efficiency aspirations initially expected. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the probability distribution function of cost overruns and delays in the construction of power generation projects, with a particular focus on mega hydroelectric dams recently built in Brazil. Results show that construction costs were, on average, 97.53% above the initial estimates. The distribution that best fits the hydroelectric power plants costs overruns is the gamma distribution. For the delays, the construction completion time had an average increase of 74.28%, or 3.5 years. The distribution that best fits the hydroelectric plants delays is the lognormal distribution. The essential statistical message obtained in this paper is that megaprojects fail to deliver the economies of scale embedded in large projects because the exposure to risk is disproportionate to the financial economies they can generate. Decision makers should carefully evaluate whether "bigger is better". |
英文关键词 | Costs overrun Delays Energy megaproject Forecasting |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000424962800021 |
WOS关键词 | SUCCESS |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19086 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Grad Sch Engn, Energy Planning Program, Rio De Janeiro, RJ, Brazil |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Callegari, C.,Szklo, A.,Schaeffer, R.. Cost overruns and delays in energy megaprojects: How big is big enough?[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,114:211-220. |
APA | Callegari, C.,Szklo, A.,&Schaeffer, R..(2018).Cost overruns and delays in energy megaprojects: How big is big enough?.ENERGY POLICY,114,211-220. |
MLA | Callegari, C.,et al."Cost overruns and delays in energy megaprojects: How big is big enough?".ENERGY POLICY 114(2018):211-220. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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