资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

This paper examines the current electrical generation expansion plan of Ghana and compares it with proposed expansion pathways with higher penetration of Renewable Energy Technologies. An adaptation of Schwartz's Scenario Methodology was used to develop the scenarios which were then analysed using the Long-range Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model. Each of the scenarios represents policy options for generation expansion in Ghana up to 2040. Energy, economic and environmental analysis of the three alternative scenarios compared to the base scenarios was undertaken. Sensitivity results show that, if the country were to follow the generation expansion path described in the renewable energy scenarios, it could reap economic benefits of 0.5-13.23% depending on the developments in fuel prices and renewable technology capital cost. The analysis further quantifies benefits to be derived from a reduction in Greenhouse gases of the scenarios. Policy implications for the generation system of Ghana based on the results are also discussed.