Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.024 |
A probabilistic total cost of ownership model to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars uptake in Italy | |
Danielis, Romeo; Giansoldati, Marco; Rotaris, Lucia | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 119页码:268-281 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Italy |
英文摘要 | In order to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars' in Italy, we develop a probabilistic total cost of ownership (TCO) model, which includes stochastic and non-stochastic variables, vehicle usage and contextual assumptions. We find that electric cars are currently not cost-competitive in Italy with the conventional petrol or diesel cars. However, they are cost-competitive with the hybrid electric cars when more than 10,000 km are annually traveled. With incentivizing policies (a (sic)5,000 subsidy and a (sic)400 parking and access fee annual savings), currently in place in a limited number of Italian Regions and cities, electric cars perform in monetary terms better than hybrid electric cars and some diesel cars, especially if they are charged at home. However, electric cars are expected to gain market share in the year 2025 if fuel prices follow past trends, even without subsidies. The driving force could be a drop in their retail price, thanks to declining battery pack costs, and a possible revision of the taxes on diesel. |
英文关键词 | Total cost of ownership Passenger cars Electric cars Conventional cars |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000439671200025 |
WOS关键词 | LIFE-CYCLE COST ; MARKET PENETRATION ; VEHICLES ; HYBRID ; MOBILITY ; COMPETITIVENESS ; INFORMATION ; INCENTIVES ; EMISSIONS ; CHINA |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19300 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Trieste, Dipartimento Sci Econ Aziendali Matemat & Stat Br, Via Univ 1, I-34123 Trieste, Italy |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Danielis, Romeo,Giansoldati, Marco,Rotaris, Lucia. A probabilistic total cost of ownership model to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars uptake in Italy[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,119:268-281. |
APA | Danielis, Romeo,Giansoldati, Marco,&Rotaris, Lucia.(2018).A probabilistic total cost of ownership model to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars uptake in Italy.ENERGY POLICY,119,268-281. |
MLA | Danielis, Romeo,et al."A probabilistic total cost of ownership model to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars uptake in Italy".ENERGY POLICY 119(2018):268-281. |
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