Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.060 |
Long term load forecasting accuracy in electric utility integrated resource planning | |
Carvallo, Juan Pablo; Larsen, Peter H.; Sanstad, Alan H.; Goldman, Charles A. | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 119页码:410-422 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Forecasts of electricity consumption and peak demand over time horizons of one or two decades are a key element in electric utilities' meeting their core objective and obligation to ensure reliable and affordable electricity supplies for their customers while complying with a range of energy and environmental regulations and policies. These forecasts are an important input to integrated resource planning (IRP) processes involving utilities, regulators, and other stake-holders. Despite their importance, however, there has been little analysis of long term utility load forecasting accuracy. We conduct a retrospective analysis of long term load forecasts on twelve Western U. S. electric utilities in the mid-2000s to find that most overestimated both energy consumption and peak demand growth. A key reason for this was the use of assumptions that led to an overestimation of economic growth. We find that the complexity of forecast methods and the accuracy of these forecasts are mildly correlated. In addition, sensitivity and risk analysis of load growth and its implications for capacity expansion were not well integrated with subsequent implementation. We review changes in the utilities load forecasting methods over the subsequent decade, and discuss the policy implications of long term load forecast inaccuracy and its underlying causes. |
英文关键词 | Resource planning Forecast accuracy Load Retrospective analysis Resource expansion Electric utility |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000439671200038 |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19301 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, MS, 1 Cyclotron Rd,90R4000, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Carvallo, Juan Pablo,Larsen, Peter H.,Sanstad, Alan H.,et al. Long term load forecasting accuracy in electric utility integrated resource planning[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,119:410-422. |
APA | Carvallo, Juan Pablo,Larsen, Peter H.,Sanstad, Alan H.,&Goldman, Charles A..(2018).Long term load forecasting accuracy in electric utility integrated resource planning.ENERGY POLICY,119,410-422. |
MLA | Carvallo, Juan Pablo,et al."Long term load forecasting accuracy in electric utility integrated resource planning".ENERGY POLICY 119(2018):410-422. |
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