Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0598.1 |
Tendency Bias Correction in Coupled and Uncoupled Global Climate Models with a Focus on Impacts over North America | |
Chang, Y.1,2; Schubert, S. D.1,3; Koster, R. D.1; Molod, A. M.1; Wang, H.3 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:2页码:639-661 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | We revisit the bias correction problem in current climate models, taking advantage of state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis data and new data assimilation tools that simplify the estimation of short-term (6 hourly) atmospheric tendency errors. The focus is on the extent to which correcting biases in atmospheric tendencies improves the model's climatology, variability, and ultimately forecast skill at subseasonal and seasonal time scales. Results are presented for the NASA GMAO GEOS model in both uncoupled (atmosphere only) and coupled (atmosphere-ocean) modes. For the uncoupled model, the focus is on correcting a stunted North Pacific jet and a dry bias over the central United States during boreal summerlong-standing errors that are indeed common to many current AGCMs. The results show that the tendency bias correction (TBC) eliminates the jet bias and substantially increases the precipitation over the Great Plains. These changes are accompanied by much improved (increased) storm-track activity throughout the northern midlatitudes. For the coupled model, the atmospheric TBCs produce substantial improvements in the simulated mean climate and its variability, including a much reduced SST warm bias, more realistic ENSO-related SST variability and teleconnections, and much improved subtropical jets and related submonthly transient wave activity. Despite these improvements, the improvement in subseasonal and seasonal forecast skill over North America is only modest at best. The reasons for this, which are presumably relevant to any forecast system, involve the competing influences of predictability loss with time and the time it takes for climate drift to first have a significant impact on forecast skill. |
英文关键词 | Bias Climate models Model errors Model evaluation performance Reanalysis data |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000454762300002 |
WOS关键词 | ERROR-CORRECTION ; FORECAST ERROR ; PART I ; VARIABILITY ; PREDICTION ; HEMISPHERE ; DEPENDENCE ; CALIFORNIA ; EVOLUTION ; TRANSPORT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19322 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.NASA, Global Modeling & Assimilat Off, GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA; 2.Morgan State Univ, Goddard Earth Sci Technol & Res, Baltimore, MD 21239 USA; 3.Sci Syst & Applicat Inc, Lanham, MD 20706 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chang, Y.,Schubert, S. D.,Koster, R. D.,et al. Tendency Bias Correction in Coupled and Uncoupled Global Climate Models with a Focus on Impacts over North America[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(2):639-661. |
APA | Chang, Y.,Schubert, S. D.,Koster, R. D.,Molod, A. M.,&Wang, H..(2019).Tendency Bias Correction in Coupled and Uncoupled Global Climate Models with a Focus on Impacts over North America.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(2),639-661. |
MLA | Chang, Y.,et al."Tendency Bias Correction in Coupled and Uncoupled Global Climate Models with a Focus on Impacts over North America".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.2(2019):639-661. |
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