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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0072.1 |
The Impact of a Low Bias in Snow Water Equivalent Initialization on CFS Seasonal Forecasts | |
Broxton, Patrick D.; Zeng, Xubin; Dawson, Nicholas | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:21 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Across much of the Northern Hemisphere, Climate Forecast System forecasts made earlier in the winter (e.g., on 1 January) are found to have more snow water equivalent (SWE) in April-June than forecasts made later (e.g., on 1 April); furthermore, later forecasts tend to predict earlier snowmelt than earlier forecasts. As a result, other forecasted model quantities (e.g., soil moisture in April-June) show systematic differences dependent on the forecast lead time. Notably, earlier forecasts predict much colder near-surface air temperatures in April-June than later forecasts. Although the later forecasts of temperature are more accurate, earlier forecasts of SWE are more realistic, suggesting that the improvement in temperature forecasts occurs for the wrong reasons. Thus, this study highlights the need to improve atmospheric processes in the model (e.g., radiative transfer, turbulence) that would cause cold biaseswhen a more realistic amount of snowis on the ground. Furthermore, SWE differences in earlier versus later forecasts are found to much more strongly affect April-June temperature forecasts than the sea surface temperature differences over different regions, suggesting the major role of snowpack in seasonal prediction during the spring-summer transition over snowy regions. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000414646000012 |
WOS关键词 | AIR-TEMPERATURE ; COVER ; PREDICTABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; RAINFALL ; MONSOON ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19333 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Atmospher Sci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Broxton, Patrick D.,Zeng, Xubin,Dawson, Nicholas. The Impact of a Low Bias in Snow Water Equivalent Initialization on CFS Seasonal Forecasts[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(21). |
APA | Broxton, Patrick D.,Zeng, Xubin,&Dawson, Nicholas.(2017).The Impact of a Low Bias in Snow Water Equivalent Initialization on CFS Seasonal Forecasts.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(21). |
MLA | Broxton, Patrick D.,et al."The Impact of a Low Bias in Snow Water Equivalent Initialization on CFS Seasonal Forecasts".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.21(2017). |
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