GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0582.1
The Role of Stochastic Forcing in Generating ENSO Diversity
Thomas, Erin E.1,2; Vimont, Daniel J.1,2; Newman, Matthew3,4; Penland, Cecile4; Martinez-Villalobos, Cristian5
2018-11-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:22页码:9125-9150
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Numerous oceanic and atmospheric phenomena influence El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, complicating both prediction and analysis of the mechanisms responsible for generating ENSO diversity. Predictability of ENSO events depends on the characteristics of both the forecast initial conditions and the stochastic forcing that occurs subsequent to forecast initialization. Within a linear inverse model framework, stochastic forcing reduces ENSO predictability when it excites unpredictable growth or interference after the forecast is initialized, but also enhances ENSO predictability when it excites optimal initial conditions that maximize deterministic ENSO growth. Linear inverse modeling (LIM) allows for straightforward separation between predictable signal and unpredictable noise and so can diagnose its own skill. While previous LIM studies of ENSO focused on deterministic dynamics, here we explore how noise forcing influences ENSO diversity and predictability. This study identifies stochastic forcing details potentially contributing to the development of central Pacific (CP) or eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO characteristics. The technique is then used to diagnose the relative roles of initial conditions and noise forcing throughout the evolution of several ENSO events. LIM results show varying roles of noise forcing for any given event, highlighting its utility in separating deterministic from noise-forced contributions to the evolution of individual ENSO events. For example, the strong 1982 event was considerably more influenced by noise forcing late in its evolution than the strong 1997 event, which was more predictable with long lead times due to its deterministic growth. Furthermore, the 2014 deterministic trajectory suggests that a strong event in 2014 was unlikely.


英文关键词Atmosphere-ocean interaction El Nino ENSO La Nina
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000447530600002
WOS关键词SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ; SEASONAL FOOTPRINTING MECHANISM ; WESTERLY WIND BURSTS ; STATE-DEPENDENT NOISE ; TONGUE EL-NINO ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; OPTIMAL-GROWTH ; COUPLED MODEL
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19354
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Climat Res, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Madison, WI 53706 USA;
2.Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Climat Res, Nelson Inst, Madison, WI 53706 USA;
3.Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA;
4.NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Phys Sci Div, Boulder, CO USA;
5.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Thomas, Erin E.,Vimont, Daniel J.,Newman, Matthew,et al. The Role of Stochastic Forcing in Generating ENSO Diversity[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(22):9125-9150.
APA Thomas, Erin E.,Vimont, Daniel J.,Newman, Matthew,Penland, Cecile,&Martinez-Villalobos, Cristian.(2018).The Role of Stochastic Forcing in Generating ENSO Diversity.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(22),9125-9150.
MLA Thomas, Erin E.,et al."The Role of Stochastic Forcing in Generating ENSO Diversity".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.22(2018):9125-9150.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Thomas, Erin E.]的文章
[Vimont, Daniel J.]的文章
[Newman, Matthew]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Thomas, Erin E.]的文章
[Vimont, Daniel J.]的文章
[Newman, Matthew]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Thomas, Erin E.]的文章
[Vimont, Daniel J.]的文章
[Newman, Matthew]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。