Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1126/science.aal3856 |
Prediction and explanation in social systems | |
Hofman, Jake M.; Sharma, Amit; Watts, Duncan J. | |
2017-02-03 | |
发表期刊 | SCIENCE |
ISSN | 0036-8075 |
EISSN | 1095-9203 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 355期号:6324页码:486-488 |
文章类型 | Editorial Material |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Historically, social scientists have sought out explanations of human and social phenomena that provide interpretable causal mechanisms, while often ignoring their predictive accuracy. We argue that the increasingly computational nature of social science is beginning to reverse this traditional bias against prediction; however, it has also highlighted three important issues that require resolution. First, current practices for evaluating predictions must be better standardized. Second, theoretical limits to predictive accuracy in complex social systems must be better characterized, thereby setting expectations for what can be predicted or explained. Third, predictive accuracy and interpretability must be recognized as complements, not substitutes, when evaluating explanations. Resolving these three issues will lead to better, more replicable, and more useful social science. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000393183100035 |
WOS关键词 | SCIENCE |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/195348 |
专题 | 地球科学 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Microsoft Res, 641 Ave Amer,7th Floor, New York, NY 10003 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hofman, Jake M.,Sharma, Amit,Watts, Duncan J.. Prediction and explanation in social systems[J]. SCIENCE,2017,355(6324):486-488. |
APA | Hofman, Jake M.,Sharma, Amit,&Watts, Duncan J..(2017).Prediction and explanation in social systems.SCIENCE,355(6324),486-488. |
MLA | Hofman, Jake M.,et al."Prediction and explanation in social systems".SCIENCE 355.6324(2017):486-488. |
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