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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0352.1 |
The Present-Day Simulation and Twenty-First-Century Projection of the Climatology of Extratropical Transition in the North Atlantic | |
Liu, Maofeng1; Vecchi, Gabriel A.2,3; Smith, James A.1; Murakami, Hiroyuki2,3 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 30期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This study explores the simulations and twenty-first-century projections of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic, with a newly developed global climate model: the Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model version 2.5 (CM2.5). FLOR exhibits good skill in simulating present-day ET properties (e.g., cyclone phase space parameters). A version of FLOR in which sea surface temperature (SST) biases are artificially corrected through flux-adjustment (FLOR-FA) shows much improved simulation of ET activity (e.g., annual ET number). This result is largely attributable to better simulation of basinwide TC activity, which is strongly dependent on larger-scale climate simulation. FLOR-FA is also used to explore changes of ET activity in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. A contrasting pattern is found in which regional TC density increases in the eastern North Atlantic and decreases in the western North Atlantic, probably due to changes in the TC genesis location. The increasing TC frequency in the eastern Atlantic is dominated by increased ET cases. The increased density of TCs undergoing ET in the eastern subtropics of the Atlantic shows two propagation paths: one moves northwest toward the northeast coast of the United States and the other moves northeast toward western Europe, implying increased TC-related risks in these regions. A more TC-favorable future climate, evident in the projected changes of SST and vertical wind shear, is hypothesized to favor the increased ET occurrence in the eastern North Atlantic. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000399679900002 |
WOS关键词 | LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES ; EASTERN UNITED-STATES ; PART I ; PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION ; PHASE-SPACE ; HURRICANE ACTIVITY ; CLUSTER-ANALYSIS ; CONSISTENT TIME ; CMIP5 MODELS ; STORM AGNES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19604 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 2.Princeton Univ, NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 3.Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Maofeng,Vecchi, Gabriel A.,Smith, James A.,et al. The Present-Day Simulation and Twenty-First-Century Projection of the Climatology of Extratropical Transition in the North Atlantic[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(8). |
APA | Liu, Maofeng,Vecchi, Gabriel A.,Smith, James A.,&Murakami, Hiroyuki.(2017).The Present-Day Simulation and Twenty-First-Century Projection of the Climatology of Extratropical Transition in the North Atlantic.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(8). |
MLA | Liu, Maofeng,et al."The Present-Day Simulation and Twenty-First-Century Projection of the Climatology of Extratropical Transition in the North Atlantic".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.8(2017). |
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