GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0437.1
Impacts of Sea Ice Thickness Initialization on Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Predictions
Dirkson, Arlan1; Merryfield, William J.2; Monahan, Adam1
2017-02-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2017
卷号30期号:3
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Canada
英文摘要

A promising means for increasing skill of seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice is improving sea ice thickness (SIT) initial conditions; however, sparse SIT observations limit this potential. Using the Canadian Climate Model, version 3 (CanCM3), three statistical models designed to estimate SIT fields for initialization in a real-time forecasting system are applied to initialize sea ice hindcasts over 1981-2012. Hindcast skill is assessed relative to two benchmark SIT initialization methods (SIT-IMs): a climatological initialization currently used operationally and SIT values from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS). Based on several measures of skill, sea ice predictions are generally improved relative to a climatological initialization. The accuracy with which the initialization fields represent both the thinning of the ice pack over time and interannual variability impacts predictive skill for pan-Arctic sea ice area (SIA) and regional sea ice concentration (SIC), with the most robust improvements obtained with SIT-IMs that best represent both processes. Similar skill to that achieved by initializing with PIOMAS, including skillful predictions of detrended September SIA from May, is obtained by initializing with two of the statistical models. Regional skill for September SIC is also enhanced using improved SIT-IMs, with an increase in the spatial coverage of statistically significant skill from 10% to 60%-70% of the appreciably varying ice pack. Reduced skill is seen, however, in the Nordic seas using the improved SIT-IMs, resulting from an inherent cold sea surface temperature bias in CanCM3 that is amplified by a thicker initial ice cover.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000395512300011
WOS关键词DYNAMICAL FORECAST SYSTEM ; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL ; PREDICTABILITY ; REANALYSIS ; EXTENT ; SKILL ; GCM ; ASSIMILATION ; AIRCRAFT ; ENSEMBLE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19692
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Victoria, Sch Earth & Ocean Sci, Victoria, BC, Canada;
2.Univ Victoria, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Environm & Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Dirkson, Arlan,Merryfield, William J.,Monahan, Adam. Impacts of Sea Ice Thickness Initialization on Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Predictions[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(3).
APA Dirkson, Arlan,Merryfield, William J.,&Monahan, Adam.(2017).Impacts of Sea Ice Thickness Initialization on Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Predictions.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(3).
MLA Dirkson, Arlan,et al."Impacts of Sea Ice Thickness Initialization on Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Predictions".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.3(2017).
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