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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0193.1 |
Merits of a 108-Member Ensemble System in ENSO and IOD Predictions | |
Doi, Takeshi; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamagata, Toshio | |
2019-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:3页码:957-972 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan |
英文摘要 | This paper explores merits of 100-ensemble simulations from a single dynamical seasonal prediction system by evaluating differences in skill scores between ensembles predictions with few (similar to 10) and many (similar to 100) ensemble members. A 100-ensemble retrospective seasonal forecast experiment for 1983-2015 is beyond current operational capability. Prediction of extremely strong ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events is significantly improved in the larger ensemble. It indicates that the ensemble size of 10 members, used in some operational systems, is not adequate for the occurrence of 15% tails of extreme climate events, because only about 1 or 2 members (approximately 15% of 12) will agree with the observations. We also showed an ensemble size of about 50 members may be adequate for the extreme El Nino and positive IOD predictions at least in the present prediction system. Even if running a large-ensemble prediction system is quite costly, improved prediction of disastrous extreme events is useful for minimizing risks of possible human and economic losses. |
英文关键词 | Seasonal forecasting |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000457262200001 |
WOS关键词 | INDIAN-OCEAN DIPOLE ; VERTICAL SCALE STRUCTURES ; EQUATORIAL THERMOCLINE ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; CLIMATE ; IMPACTS ; FORECASTS ; ATLANTIC ; MONSOON ; SUMMER |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19698 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Applicat Lab, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Doi, Takeshi,Behera, Swadhin K.,Yamagata, Toshio. Merits of a 108-Member Ensemble System in ENSO and IOD Predictions[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(3):957-972. |
APA | Doi, Takeshi,Behera, Swadhin K.,&Yamagata, Toshio.(2019).Merits of a 108-Member Ensemble System in ENSO and IOD Predictions.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(3),957-972. |
MLA | Doi, Takeshi,et al."Merits of a 108-Member Ensemble System in ENSO and IOD Predictions".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.3(2019):957-972. |
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