资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Well-organized eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is found to be accompanied by the leading suppressed convection (LSC) over the Maritime Continent (MC) and the western Pacific (WP) when the MJO convection is in the Indian Ocean (IO). However, it remains unclear how the LSC influences the MJO and what causes the LSC. The present study shows that the LSC is a prevailing precursor for eastward propagation of the MJO across the MC. The LSC enhances the coupling of IO convection and the Walker cell to its east [front Walker cell (FWC)] by increasing the zonal heating gradient. The enhanced FWC strengthens the low-level easterly, which increases boundary layer (BL) convergence and promotes congestus convection to the east of the deep convection; the enhanced congestus convection preconditions the lower to middle atmosphere, which further promotes the transition from congestus to deep convection and leads to eastward propagation of the MJO. The MJO ceases eastward propagation once the FWC decouples from it. Further analysis reveals that LSC has two major origins: one comes from the eastward propagation of the preceding IO dry phase associated with the MJO, and the other develops concurrently with the IO convection. In the latter case, the development of the LSC is brought about by a two-way interaction between the MJO's tropical heating and the associated tropical-extratropical teleconnection: the preceding IO suppressed convection induces a tropical-extratropical teleconnection, which evolves and forms an anomalous western North Pacific cyclone that generates upper-level convergence and induces significant LSC.