GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0185.1
Improved Sea Ice Forecasting through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction
Director, Hannah M.1; Raftery, Adrian E.1,2; Bitz, Cecilia M.3
2017-12-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2017
卷号30期号:23
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

A new method, called contour shifting, is proposed for correcting the bias in forecasts of contours such as sea ice concentration above certain thresholds. Retrospective comparisons of observations and dynamical model forecasts are used to build a statistical spatiotemporal model of how predicted contours typically differ from observed contours. Forecasted contours from a dynamical model are then adjusted to correct for expected errors in their location. The statistical model changes over time to reflect the changing error patterns that result from reducing sea ice cover in the satellite era in both models and observations. For an evaluation period from 2001 to 2013, these bias-corrected forecasts are on average more accurate than the unadjusted dynamical model forecasts for all forecast months in the year at four different lead times. The total area, which is incorrectly categorized as containing sea ice or not, is reduced by 3.3 x 10(5) km(2) (or 21.3%) on average. The root-mean-square error of forecasts of total sea ice area is also reduced for all lead times.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000416489400010
WOS关键词LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; INITIAL CONDITIONS ; PREDICTABILITY ; PREDICTIONS ; ENSEMBLE ; SKILL ; DEPENDENCE ; MODELS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19839
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Washington, Dept Stat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA;
2.Univ Washington, Dept Sociol, Seattle, WA 98195 USA;
3.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
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Director, Hannah M.,Raftery, Adrian E.,Bitz, Cecilia M.. Improved Sea Ice Forecasting through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(23).
APA Director, Hannah M.,Raftery, Adrian E.,&Bitz, Cecilia M..(2017).Improved Sea Ice Forecasting through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(23).
MLA Director, Hannah M.,et al."Improved Sea Ice Forecasting through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.23(2017).
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