Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
| DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0185.1 |
| Improved Sea Ice Forecasting through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction | |
| Director, Hannah M.1; Raftery, Adrian E.1,2; Bitz, Cecilia M.3 | |
| 2017-12-01 | |
| 发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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| ISSN | 0894-8755 |
| EISSN | 1520-0442 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 卷号 | 30期号:23 |
| 文章类型 | Article |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 国家 | USA |
| 英文摘要 | A new method, called contour shifting, is proposed for correcting the bias in forecasts of contours such as sea ice concentration above certain thresholds. Retrospective comparisons of observations and dynamical model forecasts are used to build a statistical spatiotemporal model of how predicted contours typically differ from observed contours. Forecasted contours from a dynamical model are then adjusted to correct for expected errors in their location. The statistical model changes over time to reflect the changing error patterns that result from reducing sea ice cover in the satellite era in both models and observations. For an evaluation period from 2001 to 2013, these bias-corrected forecasts are on average more accurate than the unadjusted dynamical model forecasts for all forecast months in the year at four different lead times. The total area, which is incorrectly categorized as containing sea ice or not, is reduced by 3.3 x 10(5) km(2) (or 21.3%) on average. The root-mean-square error of forecasts of total sea ice area is also reduced for all lead times. |
| 领域 | 气候变化 |
| 收录类别 | SCI-E |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000416489400010 |
| WOS关键词 | LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; INITIAL CONDITIONS ; PREDICTABILITY ; PREDICTIONS ; ENSEMBLE ; SKILL ; DEPENDENCE ; MODELS |
| WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19839 |
| 专题 | 气候变化 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Washington, Dept Stat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 2.Univ Washington, Dept Sociol, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 3.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Director, Hannah M.,Raftery, Adrian E.,Bitz, Cecilia M.. Improved Sea Ice Forecasting through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(23). |
| APA | Director, Hannah M.,Raftery, Adrian E.,&Bitz, Cecilia M..(2017).Improved Sea Ice Forecasting through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(23). |
| MLA | Director, Hannah M.,et al."Improved Sea Ice Forecasting through Spatiotemporal Bias Correction".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.23(2017). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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