资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The effects of optimal initial error on the short-range prediction of transition processes between the Kuroshio Extension (KE) bimodalities are analyzed using a reduced-gravity shallow-water model and the singular vector (SV) approach. Emphasis is placed on the spatial structures, growing processes, and effects of the SVs. The results show that the large values of the SVs are mainly located in the first crest region of the KE (around 35 degrees N, 144 degrees E) and in the Kuroshio large meander (KLM) region south of Japan (around 32 degrees N, 139.5 degrees E). The fast growths of the SVs have important impacts on the prediction of transition of theKEbimodality. The initial error with +SVpattern (with positive anomalies in the first crest region of the KE and negative anomalies in the KLM region) tends to strengthen the KE and shift it toward the high-energy state, while the error with -SV pattern is prone to weaken the KE and shift it toward the low-energy state. In addition, the SV-type initial errors grow more quickly in the transition phase of the KE from the high-energy to the low-energy state than in the opposite transition phase. A perturbation energy analysis illustrates that different physical processes are responsible for the error growth in the KE region for different transition phases of the KE; barotropic instability plays a dominant role in the error growth in the low-to-high (LH) energy phase, while the error evolution in the high-tolow (HL) energy phase is mainly caused by advection processes.