资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The Pacific meridional mode, a thermodynamically coupled mode of variability, links extratropical Pacific oceanic and atmospheric anomalies to the tropical Pacific and may give rise to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. While mechanistic studies on the impacts of the North Pacific meridional mode (NPMM) are prevalent in the literature, the South Pacific meridional mode (SPMM) has only recently been examined. Reanalysis and models from the archive of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used in this study to investigate further the SPMM and its role in ENSO predictability. Akin to the NPMM, the SPMM features anomalous subtropical South Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming in response to a weakened South Pacific subtropical high and relaxed trade winds. However, as opposed to the NPMM, the seasonality of the SPMM SST and wind components vary out of phase, in part because of the seasonal cycle of local mixed layer depth. Thus, the SPMM and the associated wind-evaporation-SST feedback are most energetic during austral summer, facilitating interaction with the concurrent NPMM conditions to regulate the occurrence, evolution, amplitude, and diversity of ENSO events. Parallel analyses with the CMIP5 models indicate that the models reasonably capture the temporal statistics and physical processes of the observed SPMM. Nonetheless, ENSO predictability within the models relies more on the slowly evolving equatorial ocean heat content than on the meridional modes. These findings reveal how the SPMM energizes components of ENSO variability, providing an additional benchmark for model evaluation of Pacific climate variability across multiple time scales.