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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0482.1 |
On the Emergent Constraints of Climate Sensitivity | |
Qu, Xin1; Hall, Alex1; DeAngelis, Anthony M.1; Zelinka, Mark D.2; Klein, Stephen A.2; Su, Hui3; Tian, Baijun3; Zhai, Chengxing3 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:2页码:863-875 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Differences among climate models in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the equilibrium surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2) remain a significant barrier to the accurate assessment of societally important impacts of climate change. Relationships between ECS and observable metrics of the current climate in model ensembles, so-called emergent constraints, have been used to constrain ECS. Here a statistical method (including a backward selection process) is employed to achieve a better statistical understanding of the connections between four recently proposed emergent constraint metrics and individual feedbacks influencing ECS. The relationship between each metric and ECS is largely attributable to a statistical connection with shortwave low cloud feedback, the leading cause of intermodel ECS spread. This result bolsters confidence in some of the metrics, which had assumed such a connection in the first place. Additional analysis is conducted with a few thousand artificial metrics that are randomly generated but are well correlated with ECS. The relationships between the contrived metrics and ECS can also be linked statistically to shortwave cloud feedback. Thus, any proposed or forthcoming ECS constraint based on the current generation of climate models should be viewed as a potential constraint on shortwave cloud feedback, and physical links with that feedback should be investigated to verify that the constraint is real. In addition, any proposed ECS constraint should not be taken at face value since other factors influencing ECS besides shortwave cloud feedback could be systematically biased in the models. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425164800022 |
WOS关键词 | LOW CLOUD COVER ; FEEDBACK ; MODELS ; SPREAD ; BIAS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19912 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA; 2.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Cloud Proc Res Grp, Livermore, CA USA; 3.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Qu, Xin,Hall, Alex,DeAngelis, Anthony M.,et al. On the Emergent Constraints of Climate Sensitivity[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(2):863-875. |
APA | Qu, Xin.,Hall, Alex.,DeAngelis, Anthony M..,Zelinka, Mark D..,Klein, Stephen A..,...&Zhai, Chengxing.(2018).On the Emergent Constraints of Climate Sensitivity.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(2),863-875. |
MLA | Qu, Xin,et al."On the Emergent Constraints of Climate Sensitivity".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.2(2018):863-875. |
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