GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1002/2016WR020086
Droughts in Amazonia: Spatiotemporal Variability, Teleconnections, and Seasonal Predictions
Lima, Carlos H. R.1; AghaKouchak, Amir2
2017-12-01
发表期刊WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN0043-1397
EISSN1944-7973
出版年2017
卷号53期号:12
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Brazil; USA
英文摘要

Most Amazonia drought studies have focused on rainfall deficits and their impact on river discharges, while the analysis of other important driver variables, such as temperature and soil moisture, has attracted less attention. Here we try to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of Amazonia droughts and associated climate teleconnections as characterized by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which integrates information from rainfall deficit, temperature anomalies, and soil moisture capacity. The results reveal that Amazonia droughts are most related to one dominant pattern across the entire region, followed by two seesaw kind of patterns: north-south and east-west. The main two modes are correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The teleconnections associated with global SST are then used to build a seasonal forecast model for PDSI over Amazonia based on predictors obtained from a sparse canonical correlation analysis approach. A unique feature of the presented drought prediction method is using only a few number of predictors to avoid excessive noise in the predictor space. Cross-validated results show correlations between observed and predicted spatial average PDSI up to 0.60 and 0.45 for lead times of 5 and 9 months, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the region that, based on cross-validation results, leads to appreciable forecast skills for lead times beyond 4 months. This is a step forward in better understanding the dynamics of Amazonia droughts and improving risk assessment and management, through improved drought forecasting.


领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000423299000045
WOS关键词INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; SEVERITY INDEX ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; UNITED-STATES ; MULTIVARIATE ; FOREST ; ENSO ; DEFORESTATION ; PATTERNS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/19999
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Brasilia, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Brasilia, DF, Brazil;
2.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lima, Carlos H. R.,AghaKouchak, Amir. Droughts in Amazonia: Spatiotemporal Variability, Teleconnections, and Seasonal Predictions[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(12).
APA Lima, Carlos H. R.,&AghaKouchak, Amir.(2017).Droughts in Amazonia: Spatiotemporal Variability, Teleconnections, and Seasonal Predictions.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(12).
MLA Lima, Carlos H. R.,et al."Droughts in Amazonia: Spatiotemporal Variability, Teleconnections, and Seasonal Predictions".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.12(2017).
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