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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0008.1 |
Systematic Climate Model Rainfall Biases over Southern Africa: Links to Moisture Circulation and Topography | |
Munday, C.; Washington, R. | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:18页码:7533-7548 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | An important challenge for climate science is to understand the regional circulation and rainfall response to global warming. Unfortunately, the climate models used to project future changes struggle to represent present-day rainfall and circulation, especially at a regional scale. This is the case in southern Africa, where models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) overestimate summer rainfall by as much as 300% compared to observations and tend to underestimate rainfall in Madagascar and the southwest Indian Ocean. In this paper, we explore the climate processes associated with the rainfall bias, with the aim of assessing the reliability of the CMIP5 ensemble and highlighting important areas for model development. We find that the high precipitation rates in models that are wet over southern Africa are associated with an anomalous northeasterly moisture transport (similar to 10-30 g kg(-1) s(-1)) that penetrates across the high topography of Tanzania and Malawi and into subtropical southern Africa. This transport occurs in preference to a southeasterly recurvature toward Madagascar that is seen in drier models and reanalysis data. We demonstrate that topographically related model biases in low-level flow are important for explaining the intermodel spread in rainfall; wetter models have a reduced tendency to block the oncoming northeasterly flow compared to dry models. The differences in low-level flow among models are related to upstream wind speed and model representation of topography, both of which should be foci for model development. |
英文关键词 | Atmosphere Africa Precipitation Coupled models |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000440897600002 |
WOS关键词 | INDIAN-OCEAN ; CONVERGENCE ZONE ; PRECIPITATION ; CMIP5 ; VARIABILITY ; SUMMER ; SIMULATIONS ; IMPACTS ; ITCZ ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/20245 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Munday, C.,Washington, R.. Systematic Climate Model Rainfall Biases over Southern Africa: Links to Moisture Circulation and Topography[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(18):7533-7548. |
APA | Munday, C.,&Washington, R..(2018).Systematic Climate Model Rainfall Biases over Southern Africa: Links to Moisture Circulation and Topography.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(18),7533-7548. |
MLA | Munday, C.,et al."Systematic Climate Model Rainfall Biases over Southern Africa: Links to Moisture Circulation and Topography".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.18(2018):7533-7548. |
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