Climate projections for local adaptation in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

	Climate projections for local adaptation in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas
	Oort, Bob Eric Helmuth van
	2015
出版年	2015
语种	英语
国家	挪威
出版者	CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo
领域	气候变化
英文摘要	This report is an output of the Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP). The aim of this report is to present downscaled climate scenarios in a relevant, understandable and illustrative manner for a diverse group of end-users and stakeholders, including other HICAP research components decision-makers at different levels. This report is based on dynamically downscaled temperature and precipitation projections for 8 different domains in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas. It uses the HICAP model (the WRF model, driven by the NorESM GCM model) for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Comparing model results with local observations for a reference period (1996-2005, the output was corrected for various under- and overestimations. For each domain, projections for periods 1996-2005, 2010-2030, 2030-2050 and 2050-2080 are presented a) in figures relevant for local users and decision makers, b) in a simplified text summing up the projections, and briefly discussing them in relation to potential impacts. This report provides highly relevant, locally specific results for the HICAP region, and relates these to geographical variations within each domain across the Himalayas. No other models and projections have been used in this report, and the HICAP model results should be compared with other sources of information for a final assessment of local climate change and impacts. The usability of the report extends beyond the HICAP project: the model-adjustment method, aimed at showing how to make projections realistic and relevant at the local level, the ease of the calculations and the guided interpretations of the figures and projections can serve as a guide to model use and presentations anywhere, provided the availability of a minimal amount of observations to compare and adjust larger scale model outputs to local climate observations for a certain reference period.
英文关键词	Downscaling Scenarios Himalayas Projections Climate Relevance Climate services Decision-makers Local adaptation 200
URL	查看原文
来源平台	Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO)
文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/2026
专题	气候变化
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Oort, Bob Eric Helmuth van. Climate projections for local adaptation in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas:CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo,2015.